TRON/Yen Market Overview: A Volatile 24-Hour Downtrend

• TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) fell 4.13% over the last 24 hours, closing below key support levels.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the session, followed by a consolidation phase.
• Volatility spiked overnight as price dropped from 51.08 to 49.67, with a large-volume candle at 06:15 ET.
• RSI entered oversold territory near 25, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide range, indicating increased uncertainty and risk of further swings.

The TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) pair opened at 51.00 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, hit a high of 51.08, and closed at 50.48 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 194,648.35 and a notional turnover of 4,983,871.81 JPY. The price action was dominated by a sharp sell-off starting late in the New York session, which accelerated through the Asian and European hours before some early rebound began in the U.S. session.

Structure and formations suggest a bearish bias with key support levels identified at 50.50 and 49.70. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 16:00 ET, signaling a shift in sentiment. A long lower wick at 19:45 ET indicated rejection of higher prices, while a doji at 21:15 ET suggested indecision. The 20-period EMA was at 50.90, and the 50-period EMA sat at 50.85, showing the price is currently below both and in a bearish crossover. On a daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200 EMAs were in a downward alignment, reinforcing the bearish trend.

The RSI dipped into oversold territory at 25 by 08:00 ET, hinting at a potential short-term rebound. However, MACD remained in negative territory with a bearish crossover, indicating continued downward momentum. Volatility spiked during the overnight hours, with a large-volume candle at 06:15 ET driving the price down to 49.87. Bollinger Bands were wide, with the price closing near the lower band, suggesting the move is still unfolding and could continue lower unless a strong reversal forms.

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the 15-minute chart swing from 51.08 to 49.67 showed key levels at 50.37 (61.8%) and 50.60 (38.2%). Price briefly tested the 61.8% level twice but failed to close above it, indicating strong bearish conviction. A break below 50.37 could target 49.70 and even 49.30. The daily chart’s key retracement levels from the recent high to the low also reinforced this bearish outlook. These levels can serve as watchpoints for both short-term traders and those assessing position risk.

In the next 24 hours, TRXJPY may test the 50.50 level for support, but the broader trend remains bearish. A break of 50.50 could see renewed selling pressure. Investors should monitor the RSI for signs of divergence, as well as the 20-EMA for a potential short-term bounce. However, increased volatility and a lack of clear reversal patterns suggest continued downside risk.

Backtest Hypothesis: The backtesting strategy described focuses on identifying bearish engulfing patterns followed by a pullback, and entering short positions when price fails to close above the 61.8% Fibonacci level. Given the confirmed bearish engulfing at 16:00 ET and the current price action below both EMA and Fibonacci levels, this setup aligns with the backtest conditions. A short entry at 50.55 with a stop at 50.70 and a target at 50.30 would reflect the technical structure observed over the past 24 hours. This approach would need a trailing stop to manage risk amid the heightened volatility.