TRON/Yen Market Overview

• TRXJPY opened at 49.31 and traded between 48.41 and 49.46, closing at 48.71 amid mixed volume activity.
• Volatility spiked overnight with a sharp selloff into early morning, followed by modest buying pressure in the afternoon.
• RSI and MACD suggest short-term oversold conditions, while Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band.
• A potential bullish reversal pattern emerged in the late afternoon, with a hammer-like formation around 48.71.
• Volume dipped significantly in the last 3 hours, signaling possible consolidation or exhaustion of bearish momentum.

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 49.31 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 48.71 on 2025-10-22 at the same time. The 24-hour range was 48.41 to 49.46, with total volume of 165,606.84 and a notional turnover of approximately 8,132,754.04 JPY. Price action revealed a strong selloff into the early morning, followed by a moderate rebound in the afternoon and evening.

Structure & Formations

Price found key support at 48.41 and 48.71 during the session, with resistance levels forming at 48.9 and 49.1. Notable bearish patterns included a morning breakdown below the 49.00 level and a strong rejection from 49.20–49.30. A potential hammer formed at 48.71, suggesting a short-term bottoming process, but confirmation is pending further volume and directional follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20SMA and 50SMA, indicating short-term bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA and 200DMA appear to be converging from above the current price level, suggesting possible support at around 48.85–49.00 in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed bearish divergence in the early hours but turned bullish in the afternoon as price recovered. RSI bottomed near 30 during the overnight selloff, indicating potential oversold conditions. However, a failure to hold above 48.80 could trigger a further bearish move toward 48.40.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased overnight as price dropped to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands, reaching 48.41. The afternoon rebound pushed price toward the middle band, with the bands expanding significantly due to the sharp price move. This suggests a period of heightened uncertainty and potential consolidation in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was particularly strong during the early morning selloff, especially around 10:45–11:00 ET, when price dropped from 48.77 to 48.45 on a large volume spike. However, volume declined sharply after 15:00 ET, indicating reduced conviction in the current trend. Turnover mirrored volume closely, with the largest notional turnover occurring in the early morning selloff and another smaller spike in the late afternoon rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the overnight drop from 49.46 to 48.41, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 48.94, which aligns with early afternoon resistance. Price briefly touched this level but failed to hold it, indicating possible bearish bias. A key support at 38.2% is around 48.78, which is near the closing price and may act as a near-term floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the emergence of a potential hammer pattern at 48.71, a backtest strategy focusing on bullish reversal setups could be applied using the TRXJPY pair. The strategy would involve identifying hammer patterns on the 15-minute chart and entering a long position at the open of the next candle with a 1-day holding period. While this dataset does not include a verified TRXJPY ticker in the backtesting system, it is recommended to run the backtest using TRXUSDT, which is the most liquid and reliable proxy for TRX pricing. If confirmed, risk control rules such as a stop-loss at 48.40 and a take-profit at 49.05 could be added for better risk management. Further results and validation would require access to historical TRXUSDT data from 2022 onwards.