TRON/Yen Market Overview for 2025-09-28

• • •

• TRXJPY declined from 50.60 to 50.32, closing at 50.33 at 12:00 ET.
• Key support levels at 50.32–50.34 appear reinforced by volume spikes.
• Volatility increased mid-day, with sharp sell-offs in late evening ET.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions late in the day, suggesting potential rebound.
• High volume consolidation near 50.32–50.38 may signal short-term equilibrium.

24-Hour Summary

TRON/Yen (TRXJPY) opened at 50.60 on 2025-09-27 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 50.63, and a low of 50.31, closing at 50.33 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-28. Total volume over 24 hours was approximately 238,700.00 TRX, with total turnover reaching 11,970,000 JPY. Price action reflected a bearish bias in the late evening hours, followed by consolidation in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours showed a bearish breakdown from key resistance at 50.50 to 50.60, with the final close at 50.33. A long lower shadow at 50.32–50.34 suggested rejection at these levels. A bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 22:15 ET, with a close at 50.46 from an open at 50.52. A doji appeared at 50.32 during the final candle, signaling potential exhaustion of the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly in the late evening, reinforcing the sell-off. The daily 50-period MA held above 50.40, while the 200-period MA remained below that level, suggesting a medium-term bearish bias. Price closed below the 15-minute 50-MA and near the daily 50-MA, indicating possible short-term overselling.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned negative late in the day, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI moved into oversold territory (below 30) after 03:00 ET, peaking at a low of 27 around 04:30 ET, suggesting a potential bounce. However, RSI failed to rebound strongly, remaining near 30–35 by the close, indicating cautious optimism.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply in the late evening as price fell below the lower Bollinger band, reaching 50.31. Price hovered near the band’s lower edge until mid-morning, before consolidating within the band in the final hours. This suggests that the move may have exhausted itself, and a rebound could be near if buyers re-enter the 50.32–50.38 range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the late evening and early morning hours, particularly around 23:15 ET and 02:30 ET. The largest volume spike, 69,230.05 TRX, occurred at 23:15 ET as price dropped to 50.45. However, price failed to follow up with a strong rebound, suggesting bearish conviction. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with large notional value changes occurring in the same time frames.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels from the 50.31 low to the 50.63 high, key levels at 38.2% (50.46) and 61.8% (50.36) were tested in the early morning. Price found support at 50.32–50.34, near the 61.8% level, before consolidating. A retest of 50.46 may be expected if buyers return to the 50.38–50.42 range.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern and subsequent consolidation near key Fibonacci levels, a backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at the close of a bearish engulfing candle (e.g., 22:15 ET), with a stop-loss above the high of the pattern (50.52) and a take-profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (50.36). This approach would capitalize on the bearish momentum confirmed by both candlestick and technical indicators. Over the past 24 hours, this setup would have yielded a favorable risk/reward ratio, with a 0.16 pip profit target relative to a 0.16 pip stop-loss, assuming a 1:1 risk/reward setup.