TRON/XRP Market Overview

• Price climbed to 0.1185 but closed near 0.118 at 12:00 ET, showing strong momentum in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded, with Bollinger Band widening, suggesting potential breakouts.
• High-volume bullish moves occurred around 14:30–15:15 ET, confirming strength in the upswing.
• RSI reached overbought territory at ~70, signaling potential pullback risks.
• 15-minute candles showed multiple bullish engulfing patterns, especially in the last 4 hours.

TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1137 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 0.1185, and closed at 0.118 on October 7 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour volume totaled 189,703.7 units, while notional turnover reached 21,110.9. Price gained momentum in the afternoon and evening hours, with multiple bullish reversals and a breakout above key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a clear ascending trendline on the 15-minute chart, with key support at 0.1153 and resistance at 0.1185. A strong bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 14:45–15:00 ET, followed by a hammer-like reversal at 16:00 ET, reinforcing the upward bias. The 0.1185 level appears to be a minor resistance based on Fibonacci retracements (61.8% of the last major upswing).

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart moved higher in tandem, indicating strong momentum in the short term. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA crossed above the 200-period SMA in the prior week, signaling a longer-term bullish trend. Price remains well above both 20/50 SMAs and is approaching the 100-period SMA on the daily timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram turned positive after 14:00 ET, confirming the upward acceleration. RSI surged past 70 in the final 2 hours, indicating overbought conditions, which may lead to a temporary pullback. However, sustained volume in bullish candles suggests buyers are stepping in even at elevated levels.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened as the price moved higher, indicating increased volatility. Price spent much of the final 6 hours outside the upper band, suggesting strong buyer participation. A retest of the upper band could either confirm strength or trigger a retracement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 14:30 and 15:15 ET, especially during the 15-minute candle at 15:15 ET, where over 18,922.8 units were traded. This volume was accompanied by a price high of 0.1185, confirming the bullish breakout. No notable divergence was observed between price and volume in the last 4 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.1153 to 0.1185, the 61.8% level is at 0.1173 and the 38.2% level is at 0.1167. Price held above both levels in the final hours, suggesting buyers are active at these key retracement levels.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves using a combination of 15-minute RSI (14) and a 20-period EMA crossover to generate entries. Specifically, it triggers a long signal when RSI dips below 30 and then crosses above 50, while the price closes above the 20 EMA. A stop-loss is placed below the 50-period EMA. Given today’s price action, this strategy would have triggered a long signal around 10:00–10:15 ET, as RSI dipped below 30 and rebounded. The position would have been held as price surged past the 20 EMA and the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This aligns well with today’s bullish momentum and validates the potential effectiveness of the strategy in capturing medium-term trends.