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• Price consolidates within a tight range (0.1151–0.1168) after sharp intraday volatility, signaling potential exhaustion.
• Volume surged to 119,779.6 at 09:30 ET, but price closed lower, suggesting bearish divergence.
• RSI and MACD show flat readings, indicating low momentum with no clear trend direction.
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TRON/XRP (TRXXRP) opened at 0.1163 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.1155 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.1168 and a low of 0.1146. The total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 196,224.9, with a notional turnover of 23,134.8 TRX.
The candlestick structure shows a rangebound pattern, with a bearish bias emerging after midday on 2025-09-21. A long bearish candle at 03:45 ET (0.1155–0.1153) and another at 05:00 ET (0.1152–0.115) signaled continued selling pressure. A bullish reversal attempt at 09:30 ET failed despite a massive volume spike of 119,779.6, closing at 0.1153, highlighting a bearish divergence between volume and price.
Key support levels identified are 0.1151 (tested at 02:30 ET and 06:15 ET) and 0.1149 (tested at 05:15 ET), while resistance remains at 0.1155–0.1157. A doji at 05:45 ET (0.1148–0.1150) and another at 12:45 ET (0.1157–0.1155) suggest indecision. The formation of a small bearish engulfing pattern at 02:30 ET and a bullish one at 09:30 ET adds volatility to the range. The market appears to be testing key levels before a breakout or breakdown.
The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are closely aligned, both hovering around 0.1154–0.1157, indicating no strong directional bias. The 50-period MA on the daily chart is at 0.1155, aligning with the most recent close. MACD lines are flat near zero, with no clear signal above or below the zero line, reinforcing the absence of momentum. The RSI remains in the midrange (45–55), suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, and the market is in consolidation. Bollinger Bands have tightened after a period of high volatility, with price currently sitting near the lower band, signaling a potential for a downward break or a bounce within the range.
Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy could involve using the 20-period moving average as a dynamic support line and entering short positions when price closes below it with confirmation by a bearish candlestick pattern (e.g., engulfing or shooting star). Stops could be placed above the 50-period MA, with a target at the next Fibonacci support level (0.1151). This strategy would be tested over multiple cycles, using volume spikes as filters for trade validity. The recent 03:45 ET candle (0.1155–0.1153) and the 05:00 ET candle (0.1152–0.115) provide strong examples of such setups.
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