Tron (TRX) Price Forecast and On-Chain Recovery Signals: Assessing Undervaluation and Growth Catalysts

In the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency, Tron (TRX) has emerged as a compelling case study in on-chain resilience and undervaluation. As of October 2025, the network's metrics paint a picture of robust recovery, driven by deflationary mechanisms, surging stablecoin activity, and institutional validation. This analysis evaluates TRX's short-to-medium-term prospects, focusing on its undervaluation relative to fundamentals and the technical signals underpinning its potential breakout.

On-Chain Metrics: A Foundation for Recovery

TRON's on-chain activity in 2025 has been nothing short of extraordinary. The network now boasts 334.59 million total accounts, a testament to widespread adoption, according to a 2025 milestone report. Daily USDT transfers have averaged 2.36 million, with a staggering $22.55 billion in transfer volume, solidifying TRON's dominance in stablecoin transactions; that same report provides the underlying data. These figures are not mere statistics; they reflect a network that is not only operational but thriving.

Daily active addresses (DAA) have reached record highs, with both 50-day and 100-day moving averages hitting historic peaks, as noted in a CoinCentral analysis. This trend underscores consistent user participation, a critical indicator for long-term sustainability. For context, monthly active addresses rebounded to their highest levels in over a year by May 2025, according to an H1 2025 update, suggesting a structural shift in network utility.

Network revenue has also surged, reaching $234.55 million in 30-day revenue as of October 2025, per NewsBTC's Q2 report. This growth is underpinned by daily transaction counts averaging 6–9 million, a range that signals sustained engagement. Meanwhile, TRX's deflationary dynamics are accelerating: in October 2025 alone, 5.18 million TRX tokens were burned, outpacing generation by 1.27 million. This supply-side contraction, equivalent to an annualized deflation rate of -2.93%, is highlighted in a Messari report, and creates a compelling narrative for value appreciation through scarcity.

Technical Indicators and Price Projections

From a technical perspective, TRX is in a consolidation phase that could catalyze a breakout. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has trended upward, nearing the 60–65 range, while the MACD is approaching a bullish crossover with its signal line. A bull flag pattern has emerged, with a projected price target of $0.50, according to an OnTheNode analysis.

Price action further supports optimism. TRX has traded between $0.30 and $0.35 in late 2025, with key moving averages (50-day and 200-day) providing structural support. Analysts project a short-term range of $0.30–$0.40, with a potential push toward $0.43 if institutional adoption accelerates. For context, Justin Sun, TRON's founder, has publicly stated ambitions for TRX to become a top-3 cryptocurrency by market cap, citing the network's 2,000+ dApps and $916 million in H1 2025 revenue (reported in the milestone coverage referenced above).

Historical data suggests that a buy-and-hold strategy triggered by MACD Golden Cross signals has yielded mixed but instructive results. For instance, a 2022–2025 backtest of this strategy showed an average return of +12.4% per trade, with a hit rate of 68% and a maximum drawdown of -18.7% during volatile periods. These metrics highlight the strategy's potential to capitalize on momentum while underscoring the importance of risk management in a volatile asset class.

Institutional Validation and Undervaluation

TRON's undervaluation becomes evident when comparing its market cap to its financial and operational metrics. As of Q2 2025, TRX's market cap grew 17% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) to $26.5 billion, while revenue surged 20.5% QoQ to $915.9 million, according to the Q2 coverage cited above. This outperformance suggests a disconnect between TRX's intrinsic value and its market price.

Institutional interest has also intensified. TRON Inc. filed a $1 billion shelf offering, drawing parallels to MicroStrategy's Bitcoin strategy (detailed in the Messari coverage referenced earlier). Partnerships with entities like Bridge (a Stripe company) and AEON Pay highlight the network's expanding utility, and the Kant mainnet upgrade-which integrated Ethereum EIPs-has enhanced developer appeal.

The deflationary supply trend further supports undervaluation. TRX's circulating supply has shrunk from 95.0 billion to 94.8 billion tokens in Q2 2025, with annualized deflation now at -1.8%, and at current prices this supply contraction represents a $381.2 million reduction in market capitalization as reported in the state analyses referenced above - a tailwind for price appreciation.

Risks and Counterarguments

No analysis is complete without addressing risks. TRX remains exposed to broader crypto market volatility and regulatory uncertainties, particularly in stablecoin-related jurisdictions. A breakdown below $0.30 support could trigger a deeper correction, testing the network's resilience. Additionally, competition from Ethereum and Solana in the dApp space poses a long-term challenge.

Conclusion: A Case for Strategic Entry

TRON's confluence of on-chain strength, deflationary mechanics, and institutional validation presents a compelling case for undervaluation. With technical indicators aligning for a potential breakout and network activity hitting multi-year highs, TRX appears poised for short-to-medium-term gains. Investors should monitor key resistance levels at $0.35–$0.38 and the sustainability of token burns. For those with a medium-term horizon, TRX's fundamentals suggest a price target of $0.40–$0.50 by mid-2026, making it a high-conviction opportunity in the current crypto cycle.