TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) Market Overview – September 20, 2025

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• Price traded in a tight range before surging past 0.3460, breaking above key resistance with strong volume.• Momentum accelerated post 03:00 ET, with a bullish engulfing pattern forming near 0.3463.• RSI climbed into overbought territory after a sharp move, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.• Volume surged in the 04:30–05:30 ET window, confirming the breakout and signaling increased bullish conviction.• Bollinger Bands expanded as volatility rose, with price closing near the upper band.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.3453 on September 19 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3480, a low of 0.3428, and closed at 0.3479 at 12:00 ET the following day. The 24-hour volume totaled 96,113,649.25, with a notional turnover of 33,266,563.50. The pair displayed a bullish reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart, with price pushing above recent resistance after a period of consolidation.

The price action unfolded in a clear two-stage pattern. Initially, TRXUSDT remained range-bound between 0.3435 and 0.3455 for most of the day, with a bearish bias evident before 04:00 ET. However, a breakout occurred around 04:30 ET, driven by a sharp increase in volume and momentum. By the time of the 05:30–06:30 ET period, the price had surged past 0.3460 and settled near the upper Bollinger Band. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at this level, confirming the reversal and suggesting continued upside potential. The 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line during this period, reinforcing the bullish signal.

The MACD showed a significant bullish crossover as the price accelerated, with the histogram expanding to the positive side. RSI rose to 70+ levels, indicating overbought conditions, which could lead to a short-term pullback. However, the volume surge during the breakout aligns with the price move, reducing the likelihood of a false signal. Bollinger Bands widened as volatility increased, with the price trading near the upper band at the 24-hour close, indicating a potential continuation of the trend.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart showed price finding support at the 61.8% level of the previous bearish swing and breaking above the 78.6% level. This confirmed the breakout was not just a retracement but a potential new bullish phase. On the daily chart, the price remains above both the 50- and 100-period moving averages, which bodes well for sustained momentum. The 200-period SMA has been acting as a strong support level, currently at 0.3445, which is now a key area to monitor for potential pullbacks.

The 24-hour forward outlook appears cautiously bullish. Price may test the next key resistance near 0.3485–0.3490, especially if volume remains strong. However, a retest of 0.3465–0.3470 could occur before a decisive move higher. Investors should remain alert to signs of divergence between price and volume or RSI overextension, which could trigger a consolidation phase. A breakdown below the 0.3455 level would raise concerns about the sustainability of the move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for this pair could involve a breakout trading approach, triggered by a bullish engulfing pattern and confirmed by a volume surge on the 15-minute chart. The strategy would open a long position at the close of the engulfing candle if it occurs above a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8%) and the 50-period SMA is rising. A stop-loss could be placed just below the engulfing pattern’s low, with a take-profit target set at the next Fibonacci level or upper Bollinger Band. Given the current momentum and alignment of moving averages, such a strategy could be tested for its effectiveness in capturing short-term bullish trends.