TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) Market Overview

• TRXUSDT fell 2.6% in the past 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Volatility expanded in the afternoon, with volume surging past 13 million.
• Momentum weakened after a midday peak, with RSI signaling oversold conditions.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at resistance, suggesting downward continuation.
• Bollinger Bands widened, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for a directional move.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at $0.3405 on 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.3364 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The 24-hour high and low were $0.3425 and $0.3344, respectively. The total traded volume was 67.2 million TRX, with a notional turnover of $22.8 million, indicating moderate liquidity but strong price movement.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a series of bearish signals, including a bearish engulfing pattern at $0.3412 and a hanging man at $0.3405. A key support level appears to be forming at $0.3360, which was tested twice in the latter half of the session. The price action suggests a possible continuation of the downward trend if this support level fails to hold.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a downward trend, confirming the bearish bias. On a daily basis, the 50-period MA is approaching the 100 and 200-period MAs from below, which may signal a potential for a more sustained bearish phase in the coming days.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in mid-afternoon, indicating a bearish crossover and reinforcing the recent downward momentum. The RSI has dipped to 34, entering oversold territory, suggesting a potential for a short-term rebound. However, with the RSI still declining, it is more likely that the bearish trend will continue until a clear reversal signal appears.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the afternoon, indicating heightened volatility. The price closed near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or a breakdown below the current support level. A further move below $0.3360 could trigger increased volatility in either direction, depending on the reaction of traders to the key psychological level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased sharply after 19:00 ET, peaking at 13.6 million TRX in the session, coinciding with a sharp selloff into the $0.3364 level. Notional turnover reached $22.8 million, with the majority of volume concentrated in the late New York trading session. This divergence between volume and price action suggests strong bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 24-hour swing from $0.3425 to $0.3344, the 38.2% level is at $0.3386, and the 61.8% level is at $0.3364—which the price has already reached. This suggests that the current move may be nearing a key inflection point, where a bounce or reversal could occur if buyers step in.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering a short position after a bearish engulfing pattern forms at a key resistance level and confirming the move with a close below the 20-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, while the target would be a move toward the 61.8% level or beyond, depending on market sentiment. This strategy aligns with the observed bearish momentum and provides a defined risk-reward profile for the next 24–48 hours.