TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-11-06

• TRON/Tether declined from 0.2891 to 0.2832 over 24 hours, hitting a key support level.• RSI dropped below 30, indicating potential oversold conditions after a sharp sell-off in the last 4–5 hours.• Volume surged during the decline, confirming bearish momentum, while volatility expanded as price fell below lower Bollinger Bands.• A 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line on the 15-minute chart, signaling bearish short-term momentum.• Fibonacci retracements suggest support at 0.2830–0.2820 may be tested in the near term.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.2880 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.2902 and a low of 0.2830 before closing at 0.2832 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET. The pair traded with a total volume of 135,529,771.6 and a turnover of $37,104,907.63 over the 24-hour period. A sharp selloff in the late hours of 2025-11-05 pushed the price below key support levels, signaling potential bearish continuation.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish breakdown below the 0.2880 psychological level after an initial intraday high of 0.2902. Notable patterns include a long bearish candle on 2025-11-06 at 04:45 ET and a series of lower highs starting at 05:30 ET. No bullish engulfing patterns were detected during the period, which may suggest a lack of buying interest at recent levels. A potential support cluster forms around 0.2830–0.2820, with resistance retesting expected near 0.2860–0.2870 in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in a bearish “death cross” formation, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is trending lower and currently sits above the 200-period MA, suggesting a continuation of bearish pressure. The 100-period MA is approaching the 0.2840 level, which may act as a dynamic resistance in the near future.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in the late hours of 2025-11-05 and remained bearish through the session, with negative divergence in the histogram confirming downward momentum. RSI dropped below 30 by 2025-11-06 at 15:00 ET, indicating oversold conditions. However, this does not necessarily guarantee a rebound, as the bears remain in control. A divergence between price and RSI has not formed yet, suggesting a continuation of the current trend is likely.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the selloff, with price falling below the lower band by 2025-11-06 at 15:45 ET. This suggests increased volatility and a potential oversold condition. The width of the bands widened from around 0.0015 to nearly 0.0020 during the session, signaling heightened short-term uncertainty. The price remains below the 20-period MA and within the lower band, indicating a continuation of bearish bias.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 15:00–16:00 ET timeframe (ET+8:00 to 9:00) on 2025-11-06, coinciding with a significant price drop from 0.2859 to 0.2832. Total turnover reached $10.2 million during this period, confirming bearish conviction. Price and turnover moved in the same direction, supporting the validity of the breakdown. No significant divergences between volume and price were observed, suggesting the move is backed by strong liquidity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels from the recent 0.2880 to 0.2902 swing show key retracement levels at 0.2892 (38.2%), 0.2886 (50%), and 0.2880 (61.8%). Price failed to hold above 0.2890 and broke below 0.2880, confirming the bearish trend. On the daily chart, a larger swing from 0.2896 to 0.2902 shows a 61.8% retracement at 0.2894, which was tested and rejected, reinforcing bearish momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish trend, a potential backtest strategy would involve identifying and validating the reliability of the Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern for TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT). This pattern is known to signal potential reversals in bearish trends, making it a valuable tool for timing entry points. While the data service was unable to find occurrences of the pattern using the current symbol, a potential workaround is to manually detect the pattern using the available OHLCV data or attempt alternative ticker notations. Once the pattern is validated, backtesting could assess its success rate in initiating long positions during bearish phases and evaluate its effectiveness when combined with RSI and Bollinger Band signals.