TRON/Tether (TRX/USDT) Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Action and Momentum

• TRX/USDT declines by ~0.8% over 24 hours, closing at 0.345.
• Key support tested near 0.3445–0.3460; RSI shows oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with volume spiking near 15:00 ET.
• MACD turns negative, confirming bearish momentum.
• Bollinger Band contraction and expansion indicate shifting uncertainty.

The TRON/Tether pair (TRXUSDT) opened at 0.3479 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3450 on 2025-09-19 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.3526 and a low of 0.3449. The price action saw a ~0.85% decline over 24 hours, with total trading volume hitting 104,531,682 TRX and notional turnover at $36,102,546. The move suggests bearish pressure amid moderate volatility and mixed candlestick patterns.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key support at 0.347–0.348 twice before breaking decisively below during the overnight hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 02:30 ET, signaling a reversal from the day’s earlier highs. A large bearish candle at 03:45 ET confirmed the breakdown. On the downside, a bullish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.345 at 10:45 ET but failed to hold. The 0.3445–0.3455 zone now appears as critical support, with a potential 10–15% retracement likely to be tested if the bear trend continues.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs crossed into a bearish alignment by 02:00 ET. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period, confirming a short-term bear trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period SMAs are in a descending order, with the price well below all three, suggesting the broader trend remains bearish. The short-term crossover may indicate a continuation of downward momentum for the next 48 hours if the 0.3450 level holds.

MACD & RSI

The 12:00 ET close sees the MACD line at -0.0001 with a bearish crossover and a negative histogram, confirming a decline in bullish momentum. RSI has settled at 30, indicating oversold conditions and potentially signaling a short-term rebound. However, given the breakdown below key support and the strong bearish sentiment, a rebound may be limited in range. A move above 0.3475 would be needed to re-enter neutral territory on the RSI.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a noticeable expansion during the early morning hours, indicating increased volatility and uncertainty. Price traded near the lower band for much of the overnight and morning sessions, confirming the bearish bias. A potential contraction is forming around 0.345–0.346, which could precede a breakout or a continuation of the bearish trend. The current price sits ~0.2% above the lower band, suggesting the downside remains open.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to $16.5 million around 04:30 ET as the price broke below the 0.3470 level, confirming the breakdown with strong conviction. Turnover increased in sync with volume during the breakdown and remained elevated through 11:00 ET. However, after 11:00 ET, both metrics began to normalize, indicating fading momentum. No major divergences are visible, but the lack of follow-through buying suggests the market may be cautious ahead of the next move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the swing high at 0.3526 and the swing low at 0.3449, the 38.2% level (0.3483) was tested and rejected twice. The 61.8% level (0.3462) was briefly tested midday before the price broke decisively lower. The current price near 0.345 is close to the 76.4% retracement level, which could act as a short-term floor. A break below this would suggest further movement toward the 0.3433–0.3425 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtest, a strategy could be designed to enter a short position when the 15-minute MACD line crosses below zero and the RSI dips below 35, confirming a bearish reversal with strong volume. A stop-loss would be placed at the 15-minute high of the breakout candle, while a take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the next support at 0.3440–0.3445. This setup aligns with the observed breakdown and oversold conditions, offering a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.5, depending on entry timing and position sizing.