TRON/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• TRX/USDT traded between $0.277 and $0.288 with a final close of $0.288.
• Momentum shifted from bearish to bullish with positive RSI divergence.
• Volume increased in the latter half, confirming the recent strength.

TRON/Tether (TRX/USDT) opened at $0.2825 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.288 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. The price hit a high of $0.288 and a low of $0.277 during the 24-hour period. Total trading volume was 456,562,379.70, with a notional turnover of approximately $128,669,612.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart shows a key support at $0.279 and a strong resistance forming near $0.286–$0.288. A notable Bullish Engulfing pattern appeared at 22:15 ET as price moved from $0.2827 to $0.2845. A Doji formed at 04:15 ET indicating indecision but was followed by a strong rally. These patterns suggest a potential shift in momentum to the upside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA are converging near $0.283–$0.284, supporting a bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is above the 200DMA in a slow upward trend, indicating a long-term positive bias. Price has been trading above all key moving averages recently, suggesting strong support from the trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line during the 22:00–23:00 ET timeframe, signaling bullish momentum. RSI remains within neutral territory, having moved from 48 to 57 over the 24 hours, but shows a positive divergence with price. This suggests that buyers are gaining strength without overbought conditions, indicating room for further gains.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the rally from $0.281 to $0.288, with the upper band expanding above $0.288. Price closed near the upper band, indicating overbought territory. However, this expansion may suggest a continuation of the upward trend if support at the mid-band ($0.284–$0.285) holds.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the 22:00–23:45 ET period, with the largest 15-minute turnover at $3.02M during the 22:30 ET candle. Notional turnover also rose during the final 4 hours, matching price action. The increase in volume and turnover aligns with the upward move, confirming strength rather than signaling a divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing low at $0.277 and the high at $0.288, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $0.2825 and 61.8% at $0.285. Price has tested these levels multiple times over the past 24 hours, suggesting potential for a test of the $0.288–$0.290 resistance if the 61.8% level is convincingly cleared.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy for TRX/USDT could focus on identifying confirmed Bullish Engulfing patterns during the 22:00–24:00 ET window, as seen in today’s data. These patterns historically suggest short-term bullish momentum. A 3-day holding period from entry would allow enough time to capture a meaningful move. To proceed with this test, the correct exchange-specific symbol (e.g., BINANCE:TRXUSDT) is required to ensure accurate historical pattern identification. Once confirmed, the strategy can be refined to include stop-loss and profit-target levels based on today’s volatility profile.