TRON/Tether Market Overview

• TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near a key support level with declining momentum.
• A sharp sell-off from $0.2997 to $0.2954 unfolded, with volume surging during the 19:30–20:30 ET breakdown.
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by a break below the 20-period SMA suggests bearish continuation is likely.
• RSI dropped into oversold territory, but volume failed to confirm strength at recent lows, hinting at caution.
• Fibonacci retracement of the 15-min swing shows 61.8% near 0.2952, aligning with recent price consolidation.

TRON/Tether (TRXUSDT) opened at $0.2991 on 2025-10-28 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.2997 before closing at $0.2954 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-29. The 24-hour low was $0.2945. Total volume amounted to 182,779,319.6 with a notional turnover of approximately $53,708,000.

Over the past 24 hours, TRXUSDT displayed a bearish bias with a distinct breakdown pattern forming from $0.2997 to $0.2954. The price action showed strong resistance at $0.2993–$0.2997, with a failed attempt to reclaim the 20-period SMA (0.2973) in the final hours of the session. A long bearish candle at 19:30 ET marked a key pivot in the trend, with volume spiking to over 8 million contracts and open prices far above close. This suggests increased selling pressure and a likely continuation of the downward drift.

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart intersected in a bearish crossover at $0.2978–$0.2975 around 10:30 ET. MACD showed bearish divergence with a negative histogram expanding as the price dropped. RSI dipped into oversold territory, reaching 26.3, but failed to generate a strong reversal signal due to weak follow-through volume at the 2025-10-29 03:30–06:00 ET consolidation phase. Bollinger Bands were in a contraction phase from 22:00–23:00 ET but expanded rapidly after the breakdown, with price staying well below the lower band for most of the session.

Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the 15-minute swing (0.2997–0.2945) show a 61.8% level at $0.2952, coinciding with recent price consolidation. The 200-period daily SMA at $0.2972 could act as a near-term resistance level. Volume and turnover were tightly aligned during the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move. However, volume weakened as the price neared the 61.8% retracement level, suggesting a possible bounce or continuation phase in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
To test the efficacy of a momentum-based RSI strategy for TRXUSDT, a 14-period daily RSI series is required. The signal triggers long positions when RSI < 30 (oversold) and short positions when RSI > 70 (overbought). Given the varied ticker labeling issue, specifying a precise symbol is crucial for accurate data retrieval and backtesting. Among the listed options—TRXUSDT.BINANCE, TRXUSDT.COINBASE, TRXUSDT.OKX—TRXUSDT.BINANCE is the most widely used and data-available symbol for this pair. Once confirmed, the strategy can be backtested with the provided data window to assess its historical performance and robustness.