Why Triple Flag Precious Metals Is a Strategic Buy for Gold Investors in a Rising Inflation Environment

The gold sector has emerged as a dominant force in 2025, driven by a confluence of macroeconomic pressures and institutional demand. For investors seeking to hedge against inflation and geopolitical volatility, Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) stands out as a compelling opportunity, supported by both hedge fund activity and broader sector momentum.

Hedge Fund Activity: A Barometer of Confidence

Institutional investors have been aggressively reallocating capital to gold-related assets. Pale Fire Capital SE’s new investment in TFPM—acquiring 14,520 shares valued at $278,000—signals a strategic bet on the company’s growth potential [1]. Similarly, Russell Investments Group Ltd. increased its stake by 2.5%, while Principal Street Partners LLC and Mackenzie Financial Corp also bolstered their positions [1]. These moves reflect a broader trend: institutional ownership of TFPM now stands at 82.91%, underscoring confidence in its operational resilience and exposure to gold’s price trajectory [1].

The rationale for these investments is clear. Gold prices have surged past $3,000 per ounce, fueled by central bank purchases (1,136 metric tons in 2023 alone) and global trade tensions [2]. Hedge funds like Warah Capital Advisors, which allocates 15-20% to gold as a core holding, recognize the metal’s role as a safe-haven asset in inflationary environments [2].

Sector Momentum: Gold Producers Outperform

The gold sector’s strength is not limited to ETFs or central banks. Gold mining companies have delivered record production and cash flows in Q1 2025, with firms like Calibre Mining and Perseus Mining capitalizing on elevated prices [3]. This operational success has translated into robust equity performance: the iShares Gold Producers UCITS ETF returned 24.44% in Q1 2025, outpacing all other funds in its category [2].

TFPM’s positioning within this ecosystem is particularly advantageous. As a junior miner with exploration potential and a diversified portfolio, it offers dual exposure to gold price appreciation and operational upside. The company’s recent production gains, combined with its low-cost structure, make it a high-conviction play for investors seeking both capital preservation and growth.

Inflation and Geopolitical Tailwinds

The case for gold is further reinforced by macroeconomic tailwinds. Persistent inflation, U.S. dollar weakness, and the risk of protectionist trade policies have driven record inflows into gold-backed ETFs (226 metric tons in Q1 2025) [2]. These factors align with TFPM’s business model, which benefits from rising gold prices and increased demand for physical gold.

While short-term volatility—such as the -3.3% loss in Warah Capital’s Warl One fund in Q1—may test investor resolve, the long-term outlook for gold remains bullish [2]. Hedge funds and institutional investors are increasingly viewing gold as a non-negotiable component of a diversified portfolio, particularly in an inflationary environment where traditional assets struggle to keep pace.

Conclusion

Triple Flag Precious Metals is uniquely positioned to capitalize on the gold sector’s momentum and the macroeconomic forces driving demand. With strong hedge fund backing, a resilient business model, and a favorable industry backdrop, TFPM represents a strategic buy for investors seeking to hedge against inflation while participating in the gold price rally.

Source:
[1] TFPM 13F Hedge Fund & Institutional Ownership [https://hedgefollow.com/stocks/TFPM]
[2] Gold Hedge Fund Investment Strategies in Economic ... [https://discoveryalert.com.au/news/gold-hedge-fund-investment-2025-strategy-institutional-appetite/]
[3] Gold Producers Deliver Strong Q1 2025 Results, M&A ... [https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/gold-producers-deliver-strong-q1-2025-results-m-a-activity-accelerates-as-companies-seek-growth]