Trip.com Surges 4.75% on Bullish Candlestick Patterns and Golden Cross as RSI Nears Overbought Threshold

Candlestick Theory

Trip.com (TCOM) has experienced a 4.75% surge in the most recent session, marking a two-day rally of 5.18%. Recent candlestick patterns suggest a potential bullish reversal, with the price breaking above a prior resistance level around $70.00. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged on October 31, 2025, where the body of the candle fully encapsulated the previous bearish candle, signaling a shift in momentum. Key support levels are identified at $69.985 (October 6) and $69.24 (November 7), while resistance lies near $71.50 (October 21) and $72.47 (October 29). The price has since tested the upper boundary of a descending channel, suggesting a possible breakout if it sustains above $73.00.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (currently around $70.50) has crossed above the 200-day MA ($68.00), forming a "Golden Cross" that historically signals a bullish trend. The 100-day MA ($69.50) further reinforces this alignment, with the price trading above all three indicators, indicating a strong uptrend. However, the 200-day MA lags behind, suggesting the rally may be driven by short-term momentum rather than a long-term structural shift. A breakdown below the 50-day MA could invalidate the bullish case, while a move above the 100-day MA would strengthen the trend.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive in recent sessions, with the line crossing above the signal line on November 10, 2025, signaling a potential entry point. The KDJ oscillator shows K (stochastic %K) at 85 and D (stochastic %D) at 78, suggesting overbought conditions and a possible near-term pullback. However, the KDJ lines have not yet crossed below D, which may delay a reversal. A divergence between the MACD and price action—where the MACD line declines while the price rises—emerged on November 6, hinting at weakening momentum. This confluence of overbought RSI (discussed below) and MACD divergence raises caution about a short-term correction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded as the price approaches the upper Bollinger Band (currently at $74.50). The bands have widened from a 10-period contraction on October 30, 2025, indicating heightened trading activity. The price hovering near the upper band suggests overbought conditions, but the lack of a closing rejection above this level implies buyers remain in control. A sustained move beyond the upper band could trigger a continuation of the uptrend, while a retest of the lower band ($68.50) would signal a potential mean reversion.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has spiked to 2.59 million shares on the most recent rally, a 60% increase compared to the prior session, validating the strength of the price action. However, volume has been inconsistent over the past two weeks, with mixed signals on October 30 and November 5, where high volume accompanied bearish closes. This divergence suggests that while the recent rally is supported by strong participation, underlying conviction may be fragmented. A sustained increase in volume during upward moves would be a positive sign for trend continuation.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory (70), indicating potential exhaustion in the buying momentum. While this alone does not confirm a reversal, it aligns with the KDJ overbought signal and MACD divergence. A move above 70 would likely trigger profit-taking, while a drop below 50 would suggest a shift in sentiment. The RSI has shown a bullish divergence on October 29, where the price made a lower low but the RSI did not, hinting at a possible rebound.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels are derived from the recent high of $75.68 (October 1) and low of $60.31 (September 15). The 38.2% retracement level at $69.00 has acted as a dynamic support, while the 61.8% level at $70.20 is currently under test. The price’s recent surge has pushed it above the 50% level ($67.99), suggesting a potential continuation of the rally toward the 78.6% level at $73.65. A breakdown below the 50% level would invalidate the Fibonacci-based bullish case.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of the MACD Golden Cross strategy (buying on the crossover and holding for 5 days) reveals mixed performance from 2022 to 2025. While the strategy generated a 14.16% gain in early 2022, it also incurred a 9.09% loss in 2023. This volatility underscores the importance of combining MACD signals with other indicators like RSI and volume. For TCOM, the recent Golden Cross on November 10 aligns with strong volume and a bullish engulfing pattern, but the overbought RSI and KDJ suggest caution. A hedged approach—limiting position size and setting tight stop-losses below $70.00—may mitigate risks while capitalizing on the short-term momentum.