Trip.com Plunges 6.74% Amid Bearish Technical Breakdown

Trip.com (TCOM) declined 6.74% in the most recent session, closing at $56.58 after trading between $56.37 and $58.60. This marked the largest single-day drop in over a month and occurred on elevated volume, signaling potential bearish momentum acceleration as the stock approaches key technical levels.
Candlestick Theory
The June 18th session formed a long upper-wick bearish candle after rejecting prices near $58.60, indicating persistent selling pressure at higher levels. This follows a bearish engulfing pattern from June 13th-17th where the high of $61.65 failed to sustain gains, reinforcing $60.00-$61.65 as critical resistance. Immediate support rests at $56.37 (June 18 low), with a breach potentially exposing the April 2025 swing low of $52.21. The cluster of small-bodied candles preceding the breakdown suggests consolidation exhaustion, amplifying the bearish resolution.
Moving Average Theory
Trip.com currently trades below all key moving averages (50-day ≈$60.85, 100-day ≈$59.20, 200-day ≈$57.40), confirming a bearish long-term structure. The 50-day crossed below both the 100-day and 200-day averages in early June, forming a bearish "death cross" configuration. This alignment suggests stacked resistance overhead, with any recovery likely to face congestion near the 50-DMA ($60.85) and 100-DMA ($59.20). The widening gap between shorter and longer-term averages indicates accelerating downside momentum.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram remains in negative territory with both lines (MACD: -1.25, Signal: -0.90) sloping downward, affirming bearish momentum dominance. However, the KDJ oscillator presents an oversold signal, with the K-line (18.7) and D-line (24.3) dipping below 30 as the J-line (7.5) enters extreme oversold territory. While this divergence suggests potential for a tactical bounce, it lacks confirmation from volume or candlestick reversal patterns. The MACD’s continued descent warrants caution against premature reversal assumptions.
Bollinger Bands
Price breached the lower Bollinger Band ($57.90) on June 18th while bandwidth expanded by 22% in three sessions, signaling rising volatility and continuation potential. The close below the lower band historically preceded short-term mean-reversion bounces, but the lack of bullish reversal candles diminishes confidence. Sustained trading below the lower band would imply an oversold extension rather than reversal signal. The middle band ($60.15) now serves as dynamic resistance.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 143% to 6.72 million shares on June 18th versus the 10-day average, confirming bearish conviction. This distribution occurred after steadily declining volume during the June consolidation, characteristic of capitulation events. Notably, recent rallies (e.g., May 19th surge to $67.44) lacked comparable volume validation, undermining their sustainability. For any reversal to gain credibility, bullish confirmation would require volume exceeding 5 million shares on an up day.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (28.6) entered oversold territory, historically a zone where Trip.com found interim support during February and April 2025 declines. However, RSI readings between 25-30 occurred six times in the past year, with only three instances triggering reversals exceeding 5%. While oversold, the indicator is best interpreted as a warning rather than a reversal signal without corroborating price action. Bullish divergence would require RSI forming higher lows against price’s lower lows.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the significant August 2024 low ($38.23) and December 2024 high ($77.18) places the $56.58 close below the 50% retracement ($57.70), approaching the 61.8% level at $53.10. The magnitude of the recent drop (14% from May highs) and proximity to the 61.8% support create a potential technical inflection zone. A failure at $53.10 would target the 78.6% retracement ($46.60). Conversely, recovery above $57.70 could extend toward the 38.2% resistance ($62.30).
Confluence exists at the $56.00-$57.70 zone, where Fibonacci support, the 200-DMA, and the psychological $55.00 level converge. However, multiple indicators agree on dominant bearish momentum: moving average alignment, MACD deterioration, Bollinger Band breakdown, and high-volume selling. The primary divergence lies in oversold KDJ/RSI readings against prevailing price action, suggesting potential for short-term stabilization but lacking reversal triggers. Traders should monitor $56.37 support decisiveness and volume characteristics on any rebound attempts.