Trip.com Outlook: Weak Technicals and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Headline Takeaway: Technical indicators point to a weak market environment for Trip.com (TCOM.O), while analysts remain split on its near-term prospects.

News Highlights

Recent headlines show a mixed picture of the travel and hospitality sector globally. For example, EaseMyTrip's strong Q4 performance—reaching a Gross Merchandise Value of Rs 8,691.6 crore—suggests robust demand in domestic tourism. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent tariff policies have caused ripples in the global economy, and the hospitality sector is not immune to potential disruptions. In India, several travel and hospitality firms are preparing for IPOs, indicating a growing investor appetite for this sector, which could create both opportunities and increased competition for players like Trip.com.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts have issued a range of ratings for Trip.com. The simple average rating is 4.75, but the historical performance-weighted rating is significantly lower at 1.90. This reflects a lack of consensus—despite four active analysts, their predictions are highly divergent. For example, Barclays analyst Jiong Shao has a "Buy" rating with 50% historical win rate, while Citigroup analyst Brian Gong gave a "Strong Buy" with a 0% win rate in his past predictions.

Against this, the stock has fallen 12.70% recently, aligning with the generally bearish expectations. Here are the key fundamental metrics:

• Operating revenue growth (YoY):14.41% (internal diagnostic score: 7.61)
• Net income margin:2.35% (internal diagnostic score: 7.61)
• Price-to-book (PB):1.18 (internal diagnostic score: 7.61)
• Net cash flow growth (YoY):-739.73% (internal diagnostic score: 7.61)

Despite these decent operational numbers, the stock’s overall valuation and cash flow are a cause for concern. The fundamentals suggest mixed signals—strong growth in some metrics but a steep decline in others.

Money-Flow Trends

Big-money players and institutional investors are currently showing positive flow patterns. The extra-large and block inflow ratios are above 50%, indicating strong institutional interest. Conversely, small and medium inflows are slightly negative. This divergence suggests that while institutional money is flowing in, retail investors may be hesitating or even withdrawing. The overall inflow ratio stands at 51.79%, which is marginally positive and points to a cautious but optimistic outlook from major players.

Key Technical Signals

Technically, Trip.com is in a weak position. The internal diagnostic score for technicals is just 2.14, with 3 bearish indicators dominating over 0 bullish ones. Here are the key signals:

• RSI Overbought: Internal diagnostic score 2.4. This suggests the stock may be overextended on the upside.
• MACD Golden Cross: Internal diagnostic score 3.02. While this is a bullish signal, it has shown low historical success (44.44% win rate).
• Marubozu White: Internal diagnostic score 1.0. A strong bearish candlestick pattern suggesting potential further downside.

Looking at the recent 5-day indicators, RSI Overbought has appeared multiple times (Jan 6–12, 2026), while the Marubozu White signal was flagged on Jan 8, 2026. These signals confirm a weak momentum trend.

Conclusion

Trip.com is in a tricky position: fundamentals suggest some strength in revenue growth but weak cash flow performance, while technical indicators are strongly bearish. Analysts are split in their outlooks, and while big money is showing some interest, retail investors appear wary. Given the technical score of 2.14 and the dominance of bearish indicators, a cautious approach is warranted. Investors may want to consider waiting for a pull-back before taking a long position or monitor upcoming earnings for signs of recovery.