Trip.com Group (TCOM): A Growth Catalyst in the Travel Recovery

Trip.com Group (NASDAQ:TCOM), Asia's leading travel platform, is emerging as a compelling growth story amid the post-pandemic travel rebound. Driven by accelerating earnings per share (EPS) growth, strategic insider alignment, and a bullish analyst consensus, TCOM presents a rare blend of fundamentals and sentiment that could propel it higher in 2025 and beyond.

Accelerating EPS Growth: A Foundation of Resilience
Trip.com's first-quarter 2025 results underscore a structural shift in its financial performance. Net revenue rose 16% year-over-year to $1.9 billion, while diluted EPS hit $0.84—a 31% increase from the same period in 2024. This growth isn't isolated to one segment:
- Accommodation reservations surged 23% to $764 million, reflecting stronger global demand.
- International bookings grew over 60% year-over-year, with inbound travel bookings soaring 100%.
- Adjusted EBITDA hit $586 million, a 5% increase from Q1 2024, signaling improved operational efficiency.

The company's recovery isn't just cyclical. Cross-border travel is nearing 120% of pre-pandemic levels, and its leadership in digital innovation—such as AI-driven personalization—has solidified its competitive edge. Even corporate travel, which dipped 18% quarter-over-quarter due to seasonality, remains a growth lever as business travel normalizes.

Insider Alignment: Betting on the Future
Insiders and management have demonstrated unwavering faith in TCOM's prospects. The company's $84 million share repurchase in Q1 2025 signals confidence in its valuation. Moreover, CEO Jane Sun and Executive Chairman James Liang have consistently emphasized long-term strategic priorities:
- Expanding its global footprint through partnerships and acquisitions (e.g., MakeMyTrip in India).
- Investing in AI and data analytics to enhance user experience and pricing algorithms.
- Balancing growth with cost discipline, despite rising marketing expenses.

This alignment is critical. Share repurchases and executive commentary reflect a focus on shareholder value, not short-term gains. The cash reserves of $12.8 billion provide ample flexibility to weather near-term margin pressures or geopolitical risks.

Analyst Sentiment: A Bullish Consensus
The analyst community is increasingly bullish on TCOM. The average price target of $76.64 implies a 31.68% upside from current levels, with Barclays recently raising its target to $84—a 41% premium to recent prices. Key catalysts include:
- 2025 EPS estimates: Analysts project $25.27 billion in earnings, with 2026 growth expected to hit 14.15%.
- Technical momentum: The stock has outperformed its sector over the past 12 months, with a 100% EPS beat rate in recent quarters.

Barclays' upgrade cites TCOM's “dominant position in China's outbound travel market” and its ability to capitalize on inbound tourism. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley notes that TCOM's AI-driven platforms could capture 20%+ market share gains in key regions like Southeast Asia.

Investment Thesis and Risks
Why Buy TCOM Now?
- Valuation: At current prices, TCOM trades at 15x forward P/E, below its 5-year average of 18x, offering a margin of safety.
- Catalysts: Summer travel demand, potential share buybacks, and inbound tourism recovery in China.
- Diversification: Its exposure to both domestic and international travel insulates it from regional slowdowns.

Risks to Consider:
- Geopolitical tensions could disrupt cross-border travel.
- Margin pressure from rising marketing costs (up 30% YoY).
- Seasonal volatility in corporate travel revenue.

Final Take
Trip.com Group is a high-conviction growth pick for investors willing to look past short-term noise. Its accelerating EPS, insider confidence, and analyst backing position it to capitalize on the $1.6 trillion global travel market recovery. With a price target of $76+ and a P/E discount to peers, TCOM offers a rare combination of value and momentum.

Recommendation: Buy TCOM with a 12–18 month horizon, using dips below $55 as entry points. Monitor quarterly bookings data and analyst upgrades for further catalysts.