Trip.com Group’s AGM: A Crossroads for Post-Pandemic Dominance and Global Expansion

As investors prepare for Trip.com Group’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on June 30, 2025, the stakes are high. The company, a cornerstone of China’s travel recovery, sits at the intersection of post-pandemic resilience and global expansion ambitions. With Q1 2025 results showcasing 16% year-over-year revenue growth and a robust liquidity position, the AGM offers a critical moment to assess whether management’s strategic bets on margin optimization, AI-driven innovation, and geographic diversification will deliver outsized returns. Here’s why investors should position ahead of the event.

1. Post-Pandemic Recovery: Margin Strength Amid Global Growth

Trip.com’s Q1 results underscore its ability to navigate recovery while maintaining profitability.

- Margin Resilience: Despite a slight dip in net income (flat YoY but double Q4’s figure), adjusted EBITDA rose to RMB4.2 billion, reflecting operational efficiency gains. Sales and marketing expenses grew 30% YoY, but as a percentage of revenue, they stabilized at 22%, suggesting discipline in scaling costs.
- Geographic Momentum: International bookings surged over 60% YoY, with outbound travel exceeding pre-pandemic levels by 120%. Inbound tourism to China doubled year-on-year, fueled by visa-free policies and relaxed health measures. This bodes well for the AGM, where management may outline plans to capitalize on pent-up demand.

The stock’s 13.88% 12-month return outperforms the broader market and hospitality peers, but valuation metrics suggest further upside. Trading at 52% below its estimated fair value and a P/E ratio of 17.9x (vs. 18.53 industry average), TCOM appears undervalued relative to its growth trajectory.

2. AI Integration: The Engine of Efficiency and Customer Experience

Management has consistently emphasized AI as a catalyst for cost savings and customer engagement. In Q1, AI-driven solutions likely contributed to:
- Operational Gains: Dynamic pricing algorithms and automated customer service tools reduced overhead, even as sales and marketing spending rose.
- Personalization: Trip.com’s platform now uses AI to tailor recommendations for 300 million monthly active users, boosting retention and upselling opportunities.

If the AGM confirms plans to deepen AI adoption—such as predictive analytics for inventory management or real-time demand forecasting—investors could see margin expansion beyond current estimates.

3. Liquidity and Capital Allocation: A Fortress Balance Sheet

With RMB92.9 billion in cash and investments, Trip.com has ample firepower to fuel growth without dilution. The US$84 million share repurchase program highlights confidence in its valuation.

The AGM may provide clarity on whether management will accelerate buybacks or allocate capital to high-growth regions like Southeast Asia and Europe, where visa-free policies and tourism demand are surging.

4. Regulatory Tailwinds: China’s Open-Door Policies and Global Tourism

China’s Q2 2025 regulatory landscape is a tailwind for Trip.com:
- Visa-Free Expansions: Policies extending visa exemptions for 22 countries until end-2025 and Hainan’s 30-day visa-free stays for 63 nations are boosting inbound travel.
- Infrastructure Recovery: International flights have rebounded to 82% of 2019 levels, while cruises and cultural events (e.g., Dragon Boat Festival) drive domestic tourism.

These factors align with Trip.com’s strategy to dominate both domestic and cross-border travel, making the AGM a key forum to discuss partnerships and market share gains.

The Case for Investing Pre-AGM

The data paints a compelling picture:
- Undervalued Stock: At $67.10, TCOM trades at 18.87x EV/EBITDA, a discount to its pre-pandemic multiples and peers.
- Catalysts Ahead: The AGM could deliver bullish guidance on margin trends, AI scalability, and geographic expansion, triggering a revaluation.
- Risk-Adjusted Opportunity: A Debt/Equity ratio of 27.6% and a Snowflake Financial Health score of 6/6 suggest minimal balance sheet risks.

Final Take: Act Before the AGM

Trip.com’s Q1 results and strategic priorities signal a company primed for post-pandemic leadership. With valuation discounts, strong liquidity, and regulatory tailwinds, the AGM is a pivotal moment to lock in exposure. Investors should initiate a position now, targeting the undervalued stock ahead of potential upside from earnings guidance and market share wins. The AGM could be the catalyst to finally close the gap between TCOM’s price and its fair value—and investors who act first will reap the rewards.

The journey to dominance starts here.