Trilogy Metals: A New Dawn for Alaska's Mining Industry

In a significant development for the mining industry, Trilogy Metals Inc. has provided an update on the Ambler Access Project, a proposed 211-mile industrial road in Alaska that could unlock some of the world's richest copper-dominant polymetallic deposits. The project, which has been mired in regulatory hurdles for years, has received a boost from recent executive orders and actions by the Department of Interior, signaling a potential turning point for Trilogy Metals and the broader mining sector.

Regulatory Breakthroughs

On January 20, 2025, President Trump signed an executive order titled "Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential," which instructed agency heads to revoke, rescind, or revise regulations inconsistent with resource development in Alaska. This order placed a moratorium on activities related to the rejection of a right-of-way permit to build the Ambler Road and directed the reinstatement of the prior Trump Administration's 2020 approval of the right-of-way permit. This action effectively reversed the regulatory blockade imposed by the previous administration, creating a more favorable regulatory environment for the Ambler Access Project.

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum subsequently signed a series of secretarial orders echoing President Trump's executive orders. Order 3422, titled "Unleashing Alaska's Extraordinary Resource Potential," directed the submission of an action plan to expedite the permitting and leasing of energy and natural resource projects in Alaska, including the rights-of-way and easements for roads that enable this development to occur. This order further streamlined the regulatory process for projects like the Ambler Access Project.

On March 20, 2025, President Trump signed another executive order titled "Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production," which underscored the importance of securing a stable and predictable domestic supply of critical minerals, including copper and gold. This order directed federal agencies to expedite approvals for mineral production projects, providing additional regulatory momentum for the Ambler Access Project.

Secretary Burgum's announcement that the Bureau of Land Management would work towards partial revocation of public land withdrawals to convey these lands to the State of Alaska is expected to help advance the Ambler Road. This action is commended by Alaska Senators Sullivan and Murkowski, and Representative Begich, indicating strong political support for the project.

Economic Benefits and Potential Risks

The development of the Ambler Access Project presents several key economic benefits and potential risks that could significantly influence investor sentiment towards Trilogy Metals.

# Economic Benefits:

1. Job Creation and Economic Growth:
- The project is expected to create much-needed jobs and stimulate economic growth in Alaska. Tony Giardini, President and CEO of Trilogy Metals, emphasized that the Ambler Road is crucial for "much-needed economic growth and job creation in Alaska." This economic boost can attract investors looking for opportunities in regions with high growth potential.

2. Access to Critical Minerals:
- The Ambler Mining District is home to some of the world's richest known copper-dominant polymetallic deposits. As stated, "The Ambler Mining District contains copper-dominant polymetallic deposits that have remained stranded due to access challenges." The development of the road would unlock these valuable resources, making them accessible for mining operations. This access to critical minerals is particularly important given the global copper supply concerns and the strategic importance of copper for national defense, technology, and infrastructure.

3. Regulatory Support and Expedited Permitting:
- The executive orders signed by President Trump and the supporting orders by Interior Secretary Doug Burgum aim to expedite the permitting process for energy and natural resource projects in Alaska. For instance, Secretary Burgum's Order 3422 directs the submission of an action plan to expedite the permitting and leasing of energy and natural resource projects. This regulatory support can reduce the time and cost associated with project development, making it more attractive to investors.

4. Bipartisan Political Support:
- The project has received broad support from Alaska's political leaders, including Senators Dan Sullivan and Lisa Murkowski, and Representative Nick Begich. This bipartisan support provides political insulation for the project, reducing the risk of political opposition that could slow or derail the permitting process. As noted, "The unanimous support from Alaska's federal delegation creates a powerful political alliance for advancing the project through remaining regulatory hurdles."

# Potential Risks:

1. Environmental and Social Concerns:
- The project faces potential environmental and social risks, including opposition from indigenous communities and environmental groups. While the Kobuk Tribal Council has passed a resolution in support of the road, acknowledging potential local jobs and economic benefits, there may still be concerns about the impact on traditional subsistence lifestyles and the environment. As Henry Horner Sr., President of the Kobuk Tribal Council, stated, "The conversations about subsistence, the cost of living, and jobs for our youth are important to us as we look to the future of the region as Red Dog winds down and our people need work to remain in our villages."

2. Regulatory Uncertainty:
- Despite the current regulatory support, there is always a risk of changes in government policies and regulations that could impact the project. For example, the previous administration's rejection of the right-of-way permit for the Ambler Road highlights the potential for regulatory uncertainty. As noted, "It places a moratorium on all activities related to the rejection of a right-of-way permit to build the Ambler Road and directs the reinstatement of the prior Trump Administration's 2020 approval of the right-of-way permit to build the Ambler Road."

3. Market Volatility:
- The mining industry is subject to market volatility, which can affect the demand and price of minerals like copper. Fluctuations in mineral prices can impact the profitability of the project and, consequently, investor returns. As mentioned, "The executive orders specifically prioritizing expedited approvals for mineral production directly addresses the regulatory hurdles that have historically plagued U.S. mining development."

Investor Sentiment and Stock Performance

The economic benefits, such as job creation, access to critical minerals, regulatory support, and bipartisan political backing, can positively influence investor sentiment towards Trilogy Metals. These factors indicate a favorable environment for the project's development and potential profitability. However, the potential risks, including environmental and social concerns, regulatory uncertainty, and market volatility, could deter some investors. Overall, the balance between these benefits and risks will shape investor sentiment and their willingness to invest in Trilogy Metals.



Conclusion

The recent executive orders and actions by the Department of Interior have created a more favorable regulatory environment for the Ambler Access Project, which could positively impact Trilogy Metals' stock performance by unlocking access to valuable mineral resources and providing a pathway for economic growth and job creation in Alaska. While there are potential risks, the economic benefits and strong political support make this project a compelling opportunity for investors. As the project moves forward, it will be crucial for Trilogy Metals to navigate the remaining regulatory and social challenges to fully realize the potential of the Ambler Mining District.