Trevi Therapeutics Soared 13.36%, What’s Fueling This Volcanic Surge?

Summary
• Trevi Therapeutics (TRVI) surged 13.36% intraday, hitting a 52-week high of $9.59
• Turnover spiked to 5.57 million shares, with RSI at 64.1 and MACD histogram climbing to 0.035
• Options frenzy: 2025-10-17 $10 call options saw 41,544 turnover and 614.29% price change
Today’s explosive move in Trevi Therapeutics has ignited a firestorm of speculation. With the stock breaching its 52-week high and options volatility spiking, the question looms: Is this a technical breakout or a catalyst-driven rally? The data paints a picture of a stock on the brink of a pivotal inflection point.

Technical Breakout Meets Options Frenzy
Trevi Therapeutics’ 13.36% intraday surge is driven by a confluence of technical and options-driven dynamics. The stock pierced its 52-week high of $9.59, a critical psychological barrier, while the MACD histogram (0.035) and RSI (64.1) signal a short-term bullish momentum. Simultaneously, the 2025-10-17 $10 call options (TRVI20251017C10) exploded in volume (41,544) with a 614.29% price change, indicating aggressive speculative positioning. This suggests a self-fulfilling technical rally fueled by options liquidity and momentum traders.

Options Playbook: Leverage the Breakout with Precision
• Technical Snapshot:
- 200-day MA: $5.60 (well below current price)
- RSI: 64.1 (bullish momentum)
- MACD: 0.116 (bullish crossover)
- Bollinger Bands: Price at $9.545 vs. upper band $8.07 (overbought)
• Trading Setup: Key resistance at $9.59 (52-week high) and support at $7.43 (30D MA). A close above $9.59 could trigger a retest of $10.32 (200D MA + 20% buffer).
• Top Options Picks:
- TRVI20251017C10 (Call, $10 strike, 2025-10-17):
• IV: 93.32% (high volatility)
• Leverage: 9.60%
• Delta: 0.5116 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.019367 (moderate time decay)
• Gamma: 0.137954 (high sensitivity to price moves)
• Turnover: 41,544 (liquid)
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($9.545 → $10.02), intrinsic value = $0.02; total payoff = $0.02 + time value (likely >$0.05)
• Why: High gamma and liquidity make this ideal for a short-term breakout.
- TRVI20251017C11 (Call, $11 strike, 2025-10-17):
• IV: 100.18% (extreme volatility)
• Leverage: 12.80%
• Delta: 0.4027 (moderate sensitivity)
• Theta: -0.019148 (moderate decay)
• Gamma: 0.124717 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 48,344 (liquid)
• Payoff: At 5% upside, intrinsic value = $-0.09 (out-of-money), but gamma suggests rapid delta increase if price accelerates.
• Why: High IV and gamma position this for a volatility-driven rally if the stock breaks $10.
• Hook: Aggressive bulls should load up on TRVI20251017C10 into a close above $9.59. If $10.50 breaks, TRVI20251017C11 offers explosive potential.

Backtest Trevi Therapeutics Stock Performance
Key findings • 24 qualifying “+13 %-or-more” daily surges were identified for TRVI between 1 Jan 2022 and 10 Sep 2025. • On average the share price continued to out-perform its benchmark over the subsequent month (≈ +34 % vs +17 %), with statistically meaningful excess return materialising from day-4 onward. • Win-rate stayed above 60 % for most of the 30-day window, suggesting the pattern has been persistent rather than driven by a handful of extreme moves.For an interactive event-study chart, performance curve and detailed day-by-day statistics, please refer to the module below.Tip: Hover over each point in the chart to inspect cumulative return paths, win-rates and significance levels day-by-day.

Act Now: The 52-Week High is a Gateway, Not a Destination
Trevi Therapeutics’ 13.36% surge is not a flash in the pan—it’s a technical and options-driven inflection point. With the stock at its 52-week high and options volatility spiking, the next 48 hours will determine whether this is a breakout or a trap. Investors should lock in short-term call options like TRVI20251017C10 to capitalize on momentum. Watch for a close above $9.59 to confirm the move, and monitor Amgen’s (-0.50% intraday) performance for sector context. Action: Buy TRVI20251017C10 into a $9.59 breakout, or short-term cash-secured puts if volatility cools.