TrendForce: TSMC to invest US$165 billion in the US, with production expected to start as early as 2030.
1min read According to TrendForce's latest research, tsmc (TSM.US) recently announced to increase its investment in advanced semiconductor manufacturing in the US, with a total amount of US$165 billion. If the expansion of the three new plants goes smoothly, it is expected that the production will start gradually after 2030 and reach 6% of TSMC's production in the US by 2035, but the production capacity in TSMC's Taiwan plants will still account for or exceed 80%. TrendForce said that in order to cope with potential international risks, TSMC planned to set up six plants in Arizona when it announced to build its first advanced manufacturing plant there in 2020.Since 2018, factors such as global trade disputes and the COVID-19 pandemic have accelerated the differentiation of the supply chain, and governments are eager to establish local production capacity. According to TrendForce's statistics, from the location of the plants, the global wafer-level CSP capacity in 2021 is still dominated by Taiwan, accounting for 71% of advanced process and 53% of mature process.TrendForce expects that after a series of overseas expansion actions, the advanced process capacity in Taiwan will decrease to 58% in 2030, while the mature process capacity will be 30%. Meanwhile, US and Chinese mainland manufacturers are actively expanding in the advanced and mature process markets, respectively.TrendForce said that since US customers account for the largest proportion of TSMC's advanced process adoption, it is inevitable to expand investment in the US. Besides announcing the construction of three new advanced manufacturing plants, TSMC also expanded to two advanced packaging plants and a research and development center for HPC, making Arizona a key advanced technology park for TSMC in overseas.TSMC's increased investment in the US has raised concerns about technology outflow, but TrendForce observed that the planned capacity of the first to third phases of the Arizona plant is far lower than that of the Taiwan plant, whose importance is self-evident. Although expanding production in the US can reduce the risk of over-concentration of manufacturing, the potential cost pressure may be passed on to US IC customers, leading to higher prices for components or even terminal products and affecting consumer purchasing intentions.TrendForce observed that TSMC's Arizona phase 1 has just entered production, and phases 2 and 3 are still under construction, and it is expected to start production between 2026 and 2028. The actual implementation time of the newly announced plants is still under observation, and it has not had a significant impact on the industry in the short term. Whether the cost pressure will lead to cost transfer in the long term is worth watching.