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Summary
• Price surged to 0.1624 before retracing to 0.1548, with moderate volume.
• Key resistance at 0.1624 and support at 0.1568, with mixed
Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.1566 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 0.1624 before closing at 0.1548 at 12:00 ET. The pair recorded a 24-hour volume of 13,485,460.8 and a notional turnover of 2,130.84.
The price formed a bearish reversal structure near 0.1624, followed by a consolidation phase below 0.1600. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.1568, which has been tested multiple times. On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over at 0.159–0.160, suggesting shifting momentum.
MACD diverged from price action during the early hours, indicating weakening bullish momentum, while RSI remained in neutral to oversold territory, hinting at potential for a rebound. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion in the early morning, with price hovering near the lower band, suggesting increased volatility and a possible mean reversion. Volume was unevenly distributed, with a sharp spike around 0.1624 and a decline during the late ET hours, suggesting reduced conviction in the bullish move.
Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.1566–0.1624 swing suggest critical levels at 0.1595 (38.2%) and 0.1580 (61.8%). The price appears to have bounced off the 61.8% level, which may act as a dynamic support if buyers return.
Looking ahead, traders may watch for a retest of the 0.1568 support and whether the 0.1624 high can be cleared for a continuation of the bullish phase. A drop below 0.1548 could extend the correction, with increased volatility likely in either scenario.
Backtest Hypothesis
The MACD and RSI indicators used in the 15-minute timeframe show potential for a backtesting strategy focused on identifying golden-cross events and short-term trend continuation. A 5-day holding period following a MACD crossover could align with the observed volatility and momentum shifts. However, due to the lack of a valid market data source for a standard ticker symbol (e.g., "HOLD.P"), we cannot proceed without clarification or a valid data source. Once a symbol is confirmed, we can run a backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-08 to evaluate performance metrics and refine the strategy.
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