Treehouse/Tether Market Overview for 2025-09-21

• Price declined by 4.8% in 24 hours amid uneven volume distribution.
• RSI and MACD suggest bearish momentum with no signs of oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded as price broke key support levels below 0.3300.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a breakout to the downside with weak recovery attempts.
• Fibonacci retracement levels highlight 0.3273 as immediate near-term support.

Market Summary

Treehouse/Tether (TREEUSDT) opened at 0.3372 on 2025-09-20 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.3410, and closed at 0.3273 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour volume was approximately 24,649,796.05 and the turnover (notional value) was $7,921,478.62. The price action reflects bearish continuation with a breakdown from key support levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bearish signals over the 24-hour period, including a key breakdown below the 0.3300 level, which served as a dynamic support. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 0.3305–0.3283, followed by a hammer pattern that failed to sustain a recovery. The 0.3273 level has emerged as a new short-term support based on Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.3232 to 0.3410 swing.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are below current price levels, confirming the bearish bias. On a daily scale, the 50-period moving average is likely above the current price, reinforcing the downtrend. A cross below the 200-period MA would signal a stronger bearish regime.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below the zero line, with negative momentum and bearish divergence. The RSI has remained in oversold territory since hitting 33.4 at 0.3283, indicating a continuation of selling pressure. A bounce from this level may be attempted, but without a clear reversal pattern, further declines are probable.

Bollinger Bands

Price has broken out below the lower Bollinger Band on the 15-minute chart, confirming a volatility expansion. The width of the bands has increased, reflecting heightened uncertainty. Price remains outside the bands at 0.3273, suggesting continuation of the bearish trend until a re-entry occurs.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated during the breakdown below 0.3300, especially between 0.3274 and 0.3283. Turnover increased in line with price action, supporting the credibility of the bearish move. There is no divergence between volume and price movement, so the breakdown appears genuine. However, volume has dropped off slightly near 0.3273, hinting at potential short-term consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The 0.3273 level corresponds to a 61.8% retracement of the 0.3232–0.3410 move. A break below this would expose the 0.3246 level (38.2% retracement) as the next target. Conversely, a rally above 0.3294 could trigger a test of the 0.3309 level, which is the 50% retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could focus on bearish breakout patterns with confirmation by volume and RSI. For instance, entering a short position on a close below the 0.3300 level with a stop-loss above the 0.3325 level and a target at 0.3246. This aligns with the observed Fibonacci structure and the bearish momentum signals. A 15-minute time frame would allow for tighter entry confirmation and quicker exits if the setup fails.