Treasure/Bitcoin Market Overview

• Price dipped 1.31e-06 to 1.21e-06 on 24h chart, closing at 1.27e-06
• MACD showed bearish momentum with divergence between price and volume
• RSI suggested oversold conditions below 30 during late-night trading
• Volume spiked sharply in the early morning hours but failed to push price higher
• Bollinger Bands tightened before the 10:15 ET drop, indicating potential breakout failure

The Treasure/Bitcoin (MAGICBTC) pair opened at 1.33e-06 on 2025-10-21 at 16:00 ET and reached a high of 1.35e-06 before retreating sharply to 1.21e-06 during the overnight session. The 24-hour range saw a low of 1.21e-06 and closed at 1.27e-06 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-22. Total volume amounted to 416,736.2 units, with notional turnover reaching $539,767.33, reflecting increased liquidity activity during price retracements.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a bearish reversal pattern from the 1.3e-06 level during the overnight hours, with a key support level forming around 1.28e-06. A significant bearish engulfing pattern occurred at 05:30 ET on 2025-10-22, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend. A minor resistance at 1.31e-06 failed to hold, with the price dropping below it after a failed test. A 15-minute doji at 04:45 ET confirmed indecision and likely preceded the downward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, confirming short-term bearish momentum. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend. On the daily chart, price remains above the 50-day moving average but below the 100-day and 200-day lines, indicating a mixed medium-term outlook with bearish bias in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence, with the line crossing below the signal line during the overnight decline. This suggests weakening bullish momentum. The RSI dropped into oversold territory (below 30) at 10:15 ET, coinciding with a sharp price drop to 1.21e-06. However, the RSI rebounded without a corresponding price bounce, indicating potential false signals or weak buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands tightened just before the 10:15 ET breakdown, signaling a potential breakout. However, the move failed to maintain, and the price closed within the lower band at 1.27e-06, indicating bearish volatility expansion. The narrow pre-breakdown contraction suggests a period of consolidation ended with a directional move, though the move’s strength remains questionable.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 10:15 ET to 282,577.6 units, with a corresponding drop in price to 1.21e-06. This divergence between price and volume indicates a potential bearish continuation. The highest notional turnover occurred at the same time, highlighting the significance of the breakdown. However, volume declined afterward, with no strong follow-through, suggesting limited conviction in the new price level.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent 1.35e-06 to 1.21e-06 move saw a 61.8% retracement at 1.27e-06, where price currently resides. This level may serve as a short-term support or resistance, depending on the next price action. On the daily chart, a 38.2% retracement of the larger swing from 1.35e-06 to 1.28e-06 is at 1.31e-06, which was a failed resistance earlier in the 24-hour period.

Backtest Hypothesis

The MACD crossover and RSI divergence observed over the past 24 hours align with the death-cross-based backtesting strategy described. If applied to MAGICBTC or similar low-cap pairs with high volatility, this strategy could generate short-term bearish signals for traders looking to capitalize on sharp corrections. The recent death-cross-like pattern at 05:30 ET suggests the strategy could have triggered a sell signal, with a 5-day exit potentially capturing the subsequent drop to 1.21e-06.