Travel Titans Triumph: Airbnb, Expedia, & Booking Defy Slowdown Fears with Surging Growth Forecasts
AInvestThursday, Nov 7, 2024 8:00 pm ET
1min read
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Recent earnings reports from leading online travel companies Airbnb, Booking Holdings, and Expedia suggest a robust resurgence in the travel industry. Despite earlier predictions of a downturn in post-pandemic travel demand, these firms have provided stronger-than-expected booking forecasts, countering concerns about a potential slowdown. Airbnb anticipates growth in booked nights and experiences exceeding the third quarter's rate of 8.5%, surpassing Wall Street's prediction of 7.7%. Meanwhile, Expedia has revised its full-year guidance upwards, and Booking Holdings has previously issued an optimistic outlook.

Airbnb, in its latest shareholder letter, highlighted strong momentum from September, indicating a positive start to the fourth quarter. The company reported that its third-quarter booked nights and adjusted earnings surpassed expectations. Notably, the EMEA region saw a slight increase in bookings, boosted by events like the Paris Summer Olympics, while Latin America and the Asia-Pacific regions continued to show double-digit growth. Despite slower recovery in non-China international markets, Airbnb is optimistic about these markets.

Similarly, Expedia reported a total booking value of $27.5 billion for the quarter, a 7% year-on-year increase, exceeding analysts' projections. With a significant portion of its revenue coming from the United States, Expedia's performance serves as a strong indicator of discretionary spending trends in the country. For the third quarter, its earnings per share were $6.13, surpassing expectations, although total revenue growth was modest at 3% compared to last year. However, demand for travel to international destinations remains strong, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, driven predominantly by affluent Chinese travelers.

Looking ahead to 2024, Expedia expressed confidence in the travel market's recovery by raising its forecast for booking growth from 4% to 5%. Just a few months ago, Expedia's CEO had cautioned about weaker travel demand, leading to a downward revision of annual forecasts twice, but recent developments have painted a more optimistic picture.

In the case of Booking Holdings, the company recently increased its full-year booking forecasts following a third quarter where room nights booked surpassed analyst expectations. During the three months ending September 30, Booking reported an 8% increase in room nights, reaching 299 million, beating both internal and Wall Street projections. Encouraged by these performances, the company now anticipates an 8% growth in total bookings for the year, with revenue growth slightly below 10%, and the fourth-quarter outlook also exceeding analyst predictions.

Overall, despite earlier signs of a slowdown in the travel industry following quarters of growth driven by the post-pandemic travel boom, Booking, Expedia, and Airbnb have adjusted their outlooks, reflecting a changing consumer behavior pattern. This includes choosing lower-rated accommodations, planning shorter trips, and making more last-minute bookings. These trends add complexity to demand and sales forecasting and underscore the industry's dynamic recovery from pandemic impacts.

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