How to Trash an Economic Superpower in 100 Days

The first 100 days of a new administration are often a litmus test for its economic vision. In early 2025, the United States’ leadership embarked on a bold experiment: using tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and fiscal austerity to redefine its global economic dominance. The results, however, reveal a strategy that risks undermining the very foundations of U.S. superpower status.

The Tariff Trap

The administration’s aggressive use of tariffs—targeting allies like Canada and Mexico, as well as rivals like China—has created a self-inflicted wound. By late February 2025, proposed tariffs on $3.8 trillion of imports threatened to inflate consumer prices, shrink trade volumes, and provoke retaliatory measures. show a meteoric rise, with levies jumping to 145% in some sectors. The baseline scenario now projects a 5-percentage-point rise in the average tariff rate, but the downside risk—a 10-point spike—could trigger a trade war that stifles global growth.

The automotive sector exemplifies the fallout. highlights the fragility of supply chains as tariffs on steel, aluminum, and semiconductors force companies to rethink production. Ford Motor Company’s stock price dropped 8% in early 2025 as it grappled with tariff-driven cost increases, while Tesla’s surged as it shifted production to U.S. plants—though analysts note this is a rare exception.

The Labor Market Labyrinth

Immigration policies, too, are backfiring. The administration’s goal of deporting 1 million undocumented workers annually—despite logistical hurdles—has left key industries in crisis. Agriculture, where 42% of workers are undocumented, faces labor shortages that could reduce output by $14 billion in 2025. Meanwhile, federal layoffs targeting 220,000 probationary employees threaten to push unemployment above 4.5% by year-end.

The result? A labor market caught between scarcity and surplus. Industries like tech and healthcare struggle to hire, while sectors like manufacturing and construction face overcapacity. This mismatch risks stifling productivity, a key pillar of U.S. economic supremacy.

China’s Resilience in the Shadow of Trade Wars

While the U.S. experiments with protectionism, China is navigating its own challenges—and proving more adaptable than expected. Q1 2025 GDP grew 5.4%, exceeding forecasts, driven by front-loaded exports and stimulus measures. Yet beneath the surface, deflation, weak domestic demand, and a struggling real estate sector loom.

Beijing’s response—subsidies for childcare, expanded trade-in programs, and targeted monetary tools—aims to stabilize household confidence. Analysts caution, however, that without deeper reform, China’s growth could slow to 4.8% by mid-2026. illustrates the narrowing gap in growth trajectories.

The Geopolitical Cost of Austerity

The administration’s fiscal austerity—projecting $200 billion in annual spending cuts—has paradoxically inflated deficits. Legal challenges to layoffs and congressional mandates have diluted savings, while deficits are forecast to hit 6.8% of GDP in 2025. This fiscal recklessness contrasts with the U.S.’s historical role as a stabilizing force in global markets.

Meanwhile, the “America-first” agenda has eroded soft power. Shrinking aid budgets and strained trade ties with allies like Canada and Mexico weaken diplomatic leverage. As the EU and China quietly deepen ties—evident in the $15.2 trillion EU economy’s growing tech partnerships—the U.S. risks isolation.

Conclusion: The Precarious Path Ahead

In 100 days, the administration has set the stage for a high-stakes gamble. The baseline scenario—2.6% U.S. GDP growth in 2025—hinges on avoiding a full-blown trade war. The downside, however, is dire: a 2.2% growth rate, 4.5% unemployment, and CPI inflation stuck above 2.8%.

China, despite its structural challenges, remains a formidable competitor. Its Q1 profits rebound and tech-driven investments suggest resilience. The U.S., by contrast, risks squandering its superpower status through policies that prioritize short-term political wins over long-term economic health.

As the old adage goes, “You can’t win the future by building walls.” In 2025, the U.S. is proving that lesson anew—and the world is watching closely.