TransMedics Group Soars 9.7%—What’s Fueling This Sudden Surge?

Summary
• TransMedics Group (TMDX) surges 9.68% to $118.22, hitting an intraday high of $119.25
• Turnover jumps to 1.02 million shares, with RSI at 26.14 signaling oversold territory
• MACD (-3.73) and bearish short-term trend clash with long-term ranging pattern
• Options frenzy: 2025-09-19 $110 call sees 85 contracts traded, 289.8% price surge
TransMedics Group’s explosive 9.7% rally has ignited a frenzy in the options market, with traders scrambling to position for a potential breakout. The stock’s sharp rebound from its 52-week low of $55 to $118.22—despite a short-term bearish trend—has left investors questioning whether this is a fleeting bounce or the start of a larger reversal. With the 200-day MA at $93.66 and Bollinger Bands squeezing near the upper band, the technical setup is primed for a directional move.

Short-Term Bearish Trend Meets Long-Term Ranging Pattern
The 9.68% intraday surge in TMDX defies its short-term bearish trend but aligns with its long-term ranging pattern between $55 and $169.29. The RSI at 26.14 and MACD histogram (-1.15) suggest oversold conditions, triggering algorithmic buying. However, the 30-day MA at $117.83 and 200-day MA at $93.66 create a wedge pattern, with the current price near the 30-day support/resistance zone (118.59–119.15). This technical clash between short-term bearish momentum and long-term consolidation explains the volatile bounce, as traders test key levels ahead of the 52-week high.

Options Frenzy: High-Leverage Calls and Gamma-Driven Plays
• 200-day average: $93.66 (below current price)
• RSI: 26.14 (oversold)
• Bollinger Bands: $99.10 (lower) to $133.46 (upper)
• MACD: -3.73 (bearish) vs. signal line -2.59
• Gamma: 0.04077 (TMDX20250919C115) and 0.01968 (TMDX20251017C125) suggest sensitivity to price swings

Top Options Plays:
1. TMDX20250919C115 (Call):
• Strike: $115, Expiry: 2025-09-19, IV: 47.23%, Leverage: 21.17%, Delta: 0.678, Theta: -0.510, Gamma: 0.04077, Turnover: 50,157
• IV: Mid-range volatility supports directional bets
• Delta: 0.678 indicates moderate sensitivity to price moves
• Gamma: 0.04077 amplifies theta decay as price approaches strike
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($124.13), profit = $9.13/share
• Why: High gamma and moderate delta make this ideal for a short-term breakout
2. TMDX20251017C120 (Call):
• Strike: $120, Expiry: 2025-10-17, IV: 51.87%, Leverage: 16.09%, Delta: 0.514, Theta: -0.164, Gamma: 0.02036, Turnover: 98,610
• IV: Elevated but not extreme, balancing risk/reward
• Delta: 0.514 offers balanced exposure to price swings
• Theta: -0.164 implies manageable time decay
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($124.13), profit = $4.13/share
• Why: High liquidity and moderate leverage suit a mid-term bullish stance

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider TMDX20250919C115 into a break above $119.15, while TMDX20251017C120 offers a safer, mid-term play if the 200-day MA ($93.66) holds.

Backtest TransMedics Group Stock Performance
I ran into a technical problem when trying to pull the raw indicator data automatically (the data-retrieval session could not be established). There are two practical ways we can still move forward:1. Daily-return approximation (quickest) • Treat a “10 % intraday surge” as any day where the closing price is ≥ 10 % above the previous close. • Use daily OHLC data – readily available and usually sufficient for a first-pass analysis. • I will re-fetch the daily return series and generate the event dates, then run an event-study back-test (average path, event return, optimal holding days, etc.) from 2022-01-01 to 2025-09-11.2. True intraday high-vs-previous-close definition (higher precision) • Requires intraday high data for every session to confirm the price actually spiked ≥ 10 % during the day. • This may take longer and could still face the same session-initialisation issue; I’d need to troubleshoot or request the dataset from you if you already have it.Which route would you like me to pursue?

Breakout or False Dawn? Watch These Levels
The 9.7% surge in TMDX hinges on its ability to sustain above $119.15 (30-day resistance) and confirm a breakout from its long-term range. A close above the 200-day MA ($93.66) would validate the bullish case, while a retest of the 52-week low ($55) would signal further weakness. Medtronic (MDT), the sector leader, rose 1.4% today, offering a benchmark for broader health-care equipment sentiment. Act now: Buy TMDX20250919C115 if $119.15 breaks, or short TMDX20250919P110 if the 200-day MA fails to hold.