Tranchess/USDC Market Overview

Summary
• Price action declined early then reversed, forming a bullish rebound by 07:00 ET.
• Low volume during consolidation suggests lack of conviction in early bearish pressure.
• Sharp rally in late hours confirmed a 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern near key support.

Market Overview

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at 0.0412 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.04213 and a low of 0.0399 before closing at 0.04158 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The 24-hour volume amounted to 53,303.7, with total turnover of $2,160.5. The price appears to have found a short-term floor near 0.0407 and is showing signs of consolidation after the late-day rally.

The formation of a bullish engulfing pattern on the 15-minute chart around 01:15 ET suggests a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. This pattern, coupled with increasing volume in the final hours, may indicate renewed buyer interest and a potential upward continuation.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a key support level forming at 0.0407–0.04098, which was tested multiple times and held. A notable bullish engulfing pattern formed after this support, indicating potential reversal. The subsequent move above 0.0412 suggests a temporary break in bearish control. If buyers can maintain price above 0.0412, it could signal a new short-term resistance turning into support.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price recently traded above the 20 and 50-period moving averages, which had been trending upward. This suggests positive momentum is gaining strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is just below the 200-period line, pointing to a potential retesting of long-term support or a breakout attempt.

MACD & RSI

The MACD on the 15-minute chart crossed into positive territory at the end of the session, suggesting a shift in momentum to the upside. The RSI approached 50 during the rally, indicating a potential move away from oversold conditions. While not in overbought territory, the RSI reading implies that the recent upward move has room to extend, provided volume confirms.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late-day rally, pushing price toward the upper Bollinger Band. This expansion may indicate a breakout attempt from a period of consolidation. If the price remains within the bands and volume increases, it could suggest a continuation of the current bullish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the final hours of the session, confirming the bullish reversal pattern. Total notional turnover also increased during this phase, aligning with the price action. The divergence between early bearish volume and late bullish volume suggests a shift in market sentiment. This could be an early sign of a trend reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the recent rally from 0.0399 to 0.04213 aligns with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at around 0.0415–0.0417. Holding above this level could confirm the strength of the bullish move. Daily Fibonacci levels also show that 0.0412 represents a key psychological and structural support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described involves detecting a Bullish Engulfing pattern daily and holding for exactly 3 trading days, with no stop-loss or take-profit limits. Over the period from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13, the performance of this strategy could reveal how effective such a pattern is for Tranchess/USDC. Given today’s formation, it aligns with the entry rule, and the market may be entering a favorable window for a similar 3-day holding period. The strategy's simplicity highlights how candlestick patterns, when confirmed by volume and momentum, can be used to time entries in low-liquidity crypto pairs.