Tranchess/USDC Market Overview

Summary• Price drifted lower in a bearish channel, closing below the initial 15-minute session open.• Volume spiked during key downward moves, confirming bearish momentum and lack of buying interest.• RSI approached oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term reversal, but with a high risk of further decline.• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility with price near the lower band, indicating bearish pressure.• No strong reversal patterns formed, with indecision dominating late-night to early-morning trade.

Market Overview

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.04401 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between $0.04172 and $0.04427 over the next 24 hours, closing at $0.0432. Total volume reached 86,744.0 units, with a notional turnover of $3,548.29. The pair showed bearish consolidation, with no decisive reversal patterns emerging.

The price action formed a bearish slippage pattern after a large 15-minute candle at 18:00 ET-1 drove the price down from $0.04423 to $0.04381. This was followed by further declines into the $0.04172–$0.04201 range. The formation of long lower shadows in the morning suggests limited buying support at lower levels. Notable resistance appears near $0.0432–$0.04363, while support is forming around $0.04172–$0.04201.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained bearish, with the price below both. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early hours of the morning, confirming the bearish momentum. RSI approached the 30 level but did not enter oversold territory, signaling caution rather than a guaranteed reversal. This suggests the decline may continue unless buyers emerge near the $0.04172 level.

Bollinger Bands showed moderate volatility during the night, with price nearing the lower band by 00:00–01:00 ET. This indicates bearish exhaustion may be approaching, but without a strong reversal candle, a further decline is probable. The 20-period standard deviation remained stable, indicating no significant change in volatility.

Volume and Fibonacci Retracements

Volume spiked during the key downtrend at 18:00 and 21:45 ET-1, confirming bearish conviction. Notional turnover was highest in the 15-minute candle at 21:45 ET-1 when the price dropped from $0.04296 to $0.04248. The absence of volume in the early morning indicates a lack of selling pressure, but price has not reversed yet.

Fibonacci retracements from the high of $0.04427 to the low of $0.04172 showed key levels at $0.04266 (38.2%) and $0.04228 (23.6%). The current price is below the 61.8% level, which is around $0.04203. A break below this level would suggest further testing of $0.04172. No significant consolidation has occurred at these levels yet, indicating a lack of short-term buyers.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy is hindered by a missing price series for the ticker “CHESSUSDC,” as the system cannot locate the get_asset_price node. This typically occurs when the symbol is not mapped in the internal database or the quote source is unavailable. To proceed, we must either confirm the correct symbol (e.g., “CHESS/USDC” or “CHESS-USDC”), provide an external OHLCV file (CSV/JSON), or switch to a strategy backtest using manually defined buy/sell signals based on the patterned price behavior observed.

Given the current dataset, a potential backtest could be built using the 20-period moving average and a RSI-based rule: enter long when RSI falls below 30 and price crosses above the 20-period MA, and exit short when RSI rises above 50 or price breaks below the 50-period MA. However, without a confirmed price feed, this remains a theoretical model.