Tranchess/USDC Market Overview

• Price dropped sharply from $0.07104 to $0.06299, showing bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded with a large 15-minute move from $0.07104 to $0.06854.
• Bollinger Bands likely showed widening due to increased price swings.
• RSI and MACD indicated oversold conditions toward the end of the session.
• Turnover reached $540,775 at the peak but diverged from a rebound in price.

Market Overview and Key Metrics

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.07083 on 2025-09-21 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.07106 before declining to a 24-hour low of $0.06167. The price closed at $0.06299 as of 2025-09-22 at 12:00 ET. Over the 24-hour period, the total volume was 819,668.8 USDC, with a notional turnover of approximately $54,761.50.

Structure & Formations

The price of CHESSUSDC formed a bearish structure over the 24-hour period, with a sharp decline from $0.07104 to $0.06167. A key support level appears to have emerged around $0.0625–$0.0630, where the price found a floor after several attempts to rally. A long lower shadow on the candle formed from $0.0664 to $0.06457 at 06:15 ET suggests a temporary rejection of further downward movement, while a doji formed later at $0.0633 (03:00–03:15) indicates indecision between buyers and sellers.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages would have been in a bearish crossover, confirming the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA likely remained above the 50-period and 100-period MAs, supporting a bearish bias for longer-term investors.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence, with the line and histogram pulling away from zero, especially during the sharp drop from $0.0683 to $0.06442. The RSI reached oversold territory below 30 by the end of the session, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce. However, the prolonged bearish momentum suggests that this oversold signal may not lead to a strong reversal.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility increased dramatically, with the Bollinger Bands expanding during the steep price drop from $0.07104 to $0.06167. At multiple points, the price touched the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure and potential exhaustion of short-term sellers. A contraction in the bands may follow if the price stabilizes near the $0.0625–$0.0630 support range.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the price drop, particularly from 06:15 to 06:30 ET, with a turnover of $491,439. The divergence between volume and price is notable—while price recovered slightly, volume did not confirm the rally, suggesting weaker conviction in the upside. The largest single 15-minute turnover of $491,439 occurred during a sharp decline, supporting a bearish continuation view.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from $0.07104 to $0.06167, key retracement levels at 23.6% (~$0.0676), 38.2% (~$0.0657), and 61.8% (~$0.0634) appear to have acted as short-term resistance and support. The price briefly bounced at 61.8% before falling again, suggesting a lack of demand at this level. Daily Fibonacci levels may also confirm bearish continuation as the price nears the 61.8% level of the recent downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves using a combination of MACD and RSI to identify potential reversal and continuation patterns. Given the current bearish bias and the oversold RSI, the strategy might suggest a cautious wait for a rebound from the 61.8% Fibonacci level before initiating any long position. A short-term countertrend trade could be considered if the price bounces off $0.0625 with a bullish candlestick and a positive MACD crossover. However, a continuation of the downtrend is more probable unless a strong bullish breakout above $0.0635 is confirmed by rising volume.