Tranchess/USDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Price Action and Key Technical Indicators

• Tranchess/USDC closed near the session high, showing modest bullish momentum in a low-volume environment.
• Price remained above a key 15-minute resistance at $0.04692, breaking out after a period of consolidation.
• Volatility remained subdued, with price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band in the final hours.
• Turnover was inconsistent, with large-volume spikes observed after 19:00 ET and again at 08:15 ET.
• RSI indicates moderate strength, though not overbought, suggesting potential for further upward movement.

Overview and Key Metrics

On October 26, 2025, Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.04692, hit a high of $0.04792, and closed at $0.04772 with a low of $0.04641. Total 24-hour volume reached 64,440.5, with a notional turnover of $3,055.91. The pair displayed modest upward momentum amid low to moderate trading activity, with a breakout above key intraday resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern revealed a bullish breakout from a consolidation phase that lasted from 16:00 to 18:00 ET. A strong bullish candle formed at 19:00 ET, opening at $0.04692 and closing at $0.04732 after a high of $0.04732. This candle appears to be a classic bullish engulfing pattern, confirming the end of a bearish phase. Further, a bullish reversal was evident after a bearish candle closed at $0.04701 on October 26, 00:15 ET, followed by a strong retest at $0.04691 and a follow-through rally. The key support was identified at $0.0468 and $0.04641, both of which were tested and held during the session.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Trading volume was generally subdued throughout the early hours, with a spike of 9,440.7 at 11:45 ET and another of 4,173.6 at 13:00 ET. The largest volume spike occurred at 09:30 ET with a turnover of $24180.6, confirming the strength of the bullish move. Notably, the volume surged again at 08:15 ET with 3,323.4 and remained elevated as the price approached the $0.0478 range. The volume-to-price action was in alignment during these surges, suggesting genuine buying interest rather than a washout or accumulation by large participants.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a bullish crossover starting around 09:00 ET, with the 20-period MA crossing above the 50-period MA. This crossover occurred during the early stages of a strong rally, reinforcing the bullish sentiment. Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate expansion, with price reaching the upper band at the end of the session, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend if the momentum is sustained. The band width increased from approximately 0.0004 to 0.0015, indicating rising volatility as the price approached higher levels.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a steady bullish divergence during the 08:15–12:00 ET period, with both the line and the signal line rising above zero. The RSI reached a peak of 59.3 at 10:15 ET, which is not in overbought territory, indicating the price may still have room to rise. However, the RSI declined afterward, reaching a low of 51.3 at 15:00 ET, which suggests a temporary loss of momentum. The MACD crossover at 09:00 ET signaled a shift in direction, confirming the bullish breakout observed in the candlestick patterns.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the swing low at $0.04641 and the swing high at $0.04792, the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels were at $0.04693 and $0.04743, respectively. The price tested the 38.2% level during the early morning hours and then pushed above the 61.8% level after 09:00 ET, signaling a potential continuation of the upward move. The 78.6% level at $0.0478 is now a key area to watch, as a breakout above it may confirm a stronger bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The impact of the resistance level for Tranchess/USDC has historically been a pivotal indicator of market sentiment. The breach in September 2022 initially signaled increased buying pressure but instead marked a reversal point, leading to a sharp decline by December 2022. This divergence highlights the importance of volume and market structure in confirming a breakout. Today’s 15-minute chart shows a bullish engulfing pattern that appears to confirm the breakout above the key resistance at $0.04692, supported by strong volume and aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If the price continues to hold above this level and shows confirmation on the daily chart, it may indicate a resumption of the bullish trend that was previously broken in late 2022.