Tranchess/USDC Market Overview for 2025-11-05

Summary
• CHESSUSDC opened at $0.0408, reaching a high of $0.04154 and a low of $0.03893, closing at $0.04098.
• Total 24-hour volume was 201,956.7 with turnover of $8,243.20.
• Price consolidated in a volatile range, showing no clear trend with mixed candlestick patterns.

Tranchess/USDC (CHESSUSDC) opened at $0.0408 on 2025-11-04 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.04154, a low of $0.03893, and closed at $0.04098 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET. The total 24-hour volume was 201,956.7, and the notional turnover was approximately $8,243.20.

Structure & Formations

CHESSUSDC exhibited a range-bound structure over the 24-hour window, with a consolidation range between $0.04093 and $0.04154 acting as a potential short-term resistance zone. Key support levels appeared at $0.04068 and $0.04037, while the low of $0.03893 acted as a strong floor in the latter half. Notable bearish patterns include the engulfing candle on 2025-11-04 at 22:15 ET and a morning star-like reversal from $0.03942 to $0.04052. A doji at $0.04026 suggested indecision among traders.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were close to the midrange at $0.0404–$0.0405. The 20-period MA slightly pulled ahead of the 50-period, indicating a tentative bullish bias. However, no clear directional momentum emerged on the daily chart for the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs, as price hovered near the 50-day average, signaling potential consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a mixed signal with a near-zero crossover, reflecting a neutral momentum phase. RSI fluctuated between 40 and 60 over the 24 hours, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions. A brief spike to 65 on 2025-11-04 at 22:30 ET implied short-term bullish momentum, but it quickly retraced, indicating weak conviction.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded within the Bollinger Bands for the majority of the period, with volatility expanding after 21:00 ET as the bands widened. The low of $0.03893 touched the lower band, suggesting a momentary oversold condition. Price closed near the middle band at $0.0405, indicating no strong breakout in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 86,219.5 on 2025-11-04 at 20:30 ET, coinciding with a sharp decline from $0.03993 to $0.0396. This volume confirmed the bearish move. However, the rally to $0.04128 on 2025-11-04 at 22:30 ET came with relatively low volume, indicating weak conviction in the bounce. No clear divergence was observed between price and turnover, which moved in relative harmony.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the swing from $0.03893 to $0.04128, the 38.2% retracement level sat at $0.04019, which was tested twice, while the 61.8% level at $0.03953 coincided with a bearish pullback on 2025-11-04 at 20:15 ET. On a daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the larger swing from $0.03935 to $0.04128 sat at $0.04015—very close to the close price, hinting at a potential consolidation level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the mixed momentum and range-bound action in CHESSUSDC, a backtest strategy based on the Morning-Star pattern could have potential in this market. The Morning-Star is typically a bullish reversal pattern that could be used to enter long positions after a downtrend. However, in the current data, no clear Morning-Star pattern emerged over the 24-hour window. A more viable strategy might involve using the Fibonacci levels and the doji at $0.04026 as triggers for short-term trades. For a three-day Morning-Star backtest between 2022 and today, a valid ticker is required. If the correct symbol for “Harbor Alpha Layering ETF” is provided, the strategy can be refined using actual data for improved accuracy.