Traeger CEO's Bold Bets: A Contrarian's Play in a Fallen Stock?

The stock market is a fickle beast, often punishing companies for short-term struggles while overlooking long-term potential. Nowhere is this clearer than in the case of Traeger, Inc. (NYSE: COOK), where CEO Jeremy Andrus has poured over $1 million into buying shares in June 2025 alone—a stark contrast to the market's skepticism. For investors willing to look past the noise, Andrus's aggressive insider purchases may signal a rare contrarian opportunity in a stock that has been beaten down by industry headwinds but retains foundational strengths.

The CEO's Unwavering Stance: Buying at Bottoms?

Andrus's recent transactions are nothing short of bold. Between June 2 and June 6, he acquired 379,387 shares, averaging a price of just $1.37 per share—a fraction of COOK's 52-week high of $3.97. The largest single purchase came on June 4, when he bought 300,762 shares at an average price of $1.34, a move that increased his ownership by 2.23%. By June 6, his total stake had swelled to 14.23 million shares, valued at $20.77 million.

What's striking is the timing of these purchases. COOK's stock has fallen 53% over the past six months, pressured by tariff-related costs, declining accessory sales, and broader economic uncertainty. Yet Andrus is buying at levels not seen since the stock's 52-week low. This suggests either profound confidence in a turnaround or a willingness to bet against the market's current pessimism.

Contrarian Catalysts: What Andrus Knows That Others Don't

To assess the merit of Andrus's bets, we must dissect the company's fundamentals and strategic shifts:

1. Resurgence in Grill Sales

Despite a 1% YoY revenue decline in Q1 2025, Traeger's core grill business grew 13%, outpacing accessory sales that fell 27%. Grills are the company's cash cow, and their resilience amid a slowdown hints at enduring brand loyalty. A would underscore this divergence, highlighting a shift in focus to its most profitable segment.

2. Restructuring for Profitability

Traeger is slashing costs through workforce reductions and centralizing operations, aiming to improve gross margins. The Q1 EPS beat (actual: $0.05 vs. $0.04 estimate) suggests these efforts are starting to pay off. Meanwhile, planned price hikes and tariff mitigation strategies could stabilize margins further.

3. Institutional Support Amid Downgrades

While analysts have downgraded COOK's outlook (average rating: “Hold,” target price: $2.44), major investors are doubling down. Dimensional Fund Advisors and JPMorgan Chase increased stakes by 84.5% and 758%, respectively, in recent quarters. This institutional buying—despite negative sentiment—aligns with Andrus's confidence and may foreshadow a broader reevaluation.

The Contrarian Case: Buying the Dip, Betting on Turnaround

The contrarian thesis hinges on two key arguments:

1. Valuation: A Discounted Asset
COOK's current market cap of $200 million is less than half its peak valuation. With a P/E ratio of -3.69 (due to losses), the stock trades at a discount to its peers, particularly as Traeger's restructuring and price adjustments could soon shift it to sustained profitability. A would visually reinforce this undervaluation.

2. Insider and Institutional Alignment
Andrus's direct ownership now constitutes 69% of his net worth, with the rest in Skullcandy—a bold personal stake that mirrors his public optimism. Combined with hedge funds' recent buying, this creates a scenario where management's incentives are perfectly aligned with shareholders.

Risks and Considerations

The bears have valid points: tariff pressures persist, the stock's 50-day moving average ($1.44) is below its 200-day MA ($2.09), and near-term revenue growth remains sluggish. A would clarify this technical underperformance.

Moreover, analysts' “Hold” rating reflects skepticism about the company's ability to recover margins quickly. S&P's recent negative outlook downgrade further highlights execution risks.

Investment Strategy: A Patient Contrarian Play

For investors with a 3–5 year horizon, COOK presents a compelling contrarian opportunity. Key considerations:

• Entry Point: The CEO's average purchase price of $1.37 offers a floor. A dip below $1.28 (the 52-week low) would be an even stronger entry.
• Risk Mitigation: Allocate a small portion of a portfolio to COOK, hedging against downside with stop-loss orders near $1.20.
• Catalysts to Watch: Q3 earnings (for margin improvements), tariff policy updates, and accessory sales recovery.

Final Take: When Bulls and Bulls Collide

Jeremy Andrus isn't just buying shares—he's making a statement. His timing, scale, and personal wealth tied to Traeger suggest he sees a path to profitability that the market hasn't yet recognized. For contrarians willing to look beyond the noise, this CEO's actions—and the support of institutional buyers—may mark the start of a turnaround story.

In a world where pessimism drives prices, Andrus's optimism could be the contrarian's compass. The question remains: Will the market follow his lead?

Data sources: SEC filings, company reports, and third-party analyst ratings as of June 2025.