Trading the JPM Dip: argenx's Profitability Surge vs. Pipeline Risk

The catalyst is here. On January 12, 2026, CEO Tim Van Hauwermeiren took the stage at the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference to deliver a dual update that sets the near-term trading thesis. The first half of his message was a commercial triumph: argenx is now a profitable company, and its flagship drug, VYVGART, is surging. The second half outlined a pipeline expansion that aims to sustain growth beyond the current blockbuster.

The core commercial update is staggering. argenx reported preliminary full-year 2025 global product net sales of $4.15 billion, a 90% year-over-year growth. This momentum is driven by VYVGART, which now impacts approximately 19,000 patients globally. The numbers confirm the market's early thesis that the drug is redefining treatment paradigms in myasthenia gravis and CIDP. More importantly, this revenue growth has finally translated to the bottom line, marking the company's first year of profitability.

The strategic pivot now focuses on the pipeline. Van Hauwermeiren outlined a clear path to the next wave of commercial launches, aiming for a portfolio that could treat over 50,000 patients. The company has already successfully advanced four new pipeline molecules in 2025, and three more are set to enter Phase 1 in 2026. The goal is to have 10 clinical-stage molecules by year-end. This expansion is critical, as it targets a new generation of medicines to follow VYVGART's success.

The immediate trading setup is clear. These updates confirm strong near-term commercial momentum and a disciplined execution track record. Yet, the stock's recent pullback suggests the market is already pricing in the execution risk for this expanded pipeline. The JPM presentation provides the facts to judge that risk, setting the stage for a tactical debate on whether the current valuation adequately rewards the company's proven ability to deliver.

The Setup: Why This Creates a Trade

The trading opportunity is defined by a clear disconnect. The stock has just delivered a powerful 120-day return of +39.35%, a classic momentum move fueled by the VYVGART blockbuster. Yet, that same momentum has triggered a sharp 10.51% pullback over the past 20 days. This is profit-taking in its purest form-a natural pause after a strong run. For a tactical trader, this dip is the entry point.

The valuation tells the rest of the story. With an EV/Sales TTM of 14.91x, the stock trades at a significant premium. This price already assumes argenx will successfully navigate its expanded pipeline and achieve its Vision 2030 goals. The recent pullback may be the market's way of demanding a clearer view on that execution path before re-escalating the valuation.

The immediate catalyst to watch is the submission of a seronegative gMG sBLA by year-end. Success here would directly expand VYVGART's market in the U.S., providing a near-term commercial catalyst that could re-ignite the growth narrative. More broadly, the company has five registrational study readouts expected in 2026, creating a series of potential inflection points.

The near-term window is now. The trade is to buy the dip ahead of these 2026 catalysts, betting that the current valuation, while high, still offers a margin of safety given the company's proven ability to execute. The setup is a classic event-driven play: a profitable company with a blockbuster, a pipeline expanding, and a stock that has pulled back just enough to create a tactical entry.

Catalysts and Risks: The 2026 Execution Timeline

The trading thesis now hinges on a specific 2026 timeline. The company has laid out four key registrational study readouts for the year, with the first for empasiprubart (EMPA) expected to advance toward next wave of 2027 commercial launches. These are the immediate milestones that will test the market's confidence in the pipeline expansion. Success here would validate the strategy and justify the premium valuation. Failure to deliver positive results on any of these four studies, however, would directly pressure that valuation and likely trigger another round of selling.

The primary risk is execution on this expanded pipeline. The company has successfully advanced four new molecules in 2025, but moving three more into Phase 1 in 2026 and hitting 10 clinical-stage molecules by year-end is a significant operational lift. The market has already priced in this ambition, so any stumble in the 2026 timeline would be punished.

A key watchpoint is the VYVGART SC autoinjector launch, expected in 2027. While not a 2026 catalyst, its development is part of the same "convenience" playbook that drove the prefilled syringe's success. A smooth path to this launch would further drive patient adoption and sales, reinforcing the commercial momentum that supports the stock's premium.

The trading window is defined by these 2026 milestones. The stock's fate will be determined by whether argenx can deliver on this near-term execution plan. For now, the dip offers a tactical entry, but the setup is binary: clear wins on the 2026 readouts could re-rate the stock higher, while any delay or negative data would likely reset expectations and pressure the valuation.