Tradeweb Surpasses $520M Revenue as AI and Global Swaps Drive Growth

Date of Call: Feb 5, 2026

Financials Results

• Revenue: $521M, up 12.5% year-over-year
• EPS: Not explicitly stated; GAAP EPS includes $207M in net gains from strategic investments, unrealized and realized.
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin of 54%, up 64 basis points year-over-year

Guidance:

• Adjusted expenses for 2026 expected to range between $1.1B and $1.16B, representing ~11% YOY growth at the midpoint.
• Expect adjusted EBITDA and operating margin expansion compared to 2025, though incremental expansion will be more muted.
• Tech & communications expenses expected to grow mid- to high-teens over Q4 run rate.
• Annual G&A expenses impacted by continued FX losses, primarily in H1 2026.
• Q1 2026 net interest income expected to be ~$15M.
• Annual CapEx and capitalized software development expected between $107M and $117M (midpoint ~9% YOY growth).
• Acquisition and Refinitiv Transaction-related D&A expected to be $160M in 2026.
• 2026 revenue from LSEG master data agreement expected to be ~$105M annually.

Business Commentary:

Record Revenue Year and Quarter:

• Tradeweb Markets Inc. reported record revenue of $521 million for Q4 2025, up 12.5% year-over-year on a reported basis.
• The growth was driven by strong client activity, share gains, and a risk-on environment.

International and Digital Asset Growth:

• The company's international client revenues grew over 35% in Asia and over 25% in Europe, with digital asset revenues increasing by 94%.
• This was attributed to the expansion of product capabilities and partnerships in international markets and the scaling of digital asset initiatives.

Swaps and Credit Market Performance:

• Global swaps delivered record quarterly revenues, up over 25% year-over-year, while credit revenues showed low single-digit growth.
• Growth in swaps was driven by strong client engagement and increased weighted average duration, while credit growth was supported by strength in European credit and emerging market credit.

Equity and ETF Revenue Growth:

• Equity revenues grew almost 10% year-over-year, led by growth in global ETFs and equity derivatives.
• The increase was due to the deepening integration with clients, leveraging workflow connectivity, and strong adoption of automated ETF trading solutions.

Volatility and U.S. Treasury Revenues:

• Intraday volatility decreased by 27% year-over-year, yet U.S. Treasury revenues increased by 1% year-over-year.
• This was due to continued strength in the institutional channel, offsetting weaker retail trends, with expectations of reacceleration as the market penetrates more of the voice market.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• CEO stated: "I am extremely proud of the Tradeweb team that helped produce the best revenue year and quarter in our history." CFO highlighted record revenues and margin expansion. Outlook for 2026 described as "constructive" with "strong momentum" and "good outcome for us and a good marketplace."

Q&A:

• Question from Patrick Moley (Piper Sandler & Co.): Elaborate on major themes for 2026 outlook and what drove the strong 17% year-over-year revenue growth in January.
  Response: Growth driven by supportive Fed, strong debt issuance, AI-related infrastructure investment, geopolitical complexity spurring cross-border trading, and potential return of risk events. January strength reflects these factors plus a favorable comparison (Jan 2025 had an extra day).

• Question from Craig Siegenthaler (BofA Securities): How is Tradeweb utilizing AI across the platform, differentiating generative vs. predictive models?
  Response: AI is a natural extension for efficiency and effectiveness gains, focused on analyzing proprietary market data to unlock the next frontier of electronification, particularly in less liquid markets and for larger notional trades.

• Question from Alexander Blostein (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.): How do you think about interplay between expense growth trajectory, margins, and operating leverage for 2026, especially if revenue moderates?
  Response: Expense base is ~55% fixed and ~45% variable/discretionary, allowing flexibility to maintain positive operating leverage through cycles. The priority is investing for long-term revenue growth.

• Question from Kenneth Worthington (JPMorgan Chase & Co): What is the outlook for mortgage trading in 2026, and could innovations from competitors like ICE impact your business?
  Response: Mortgage market is becoming more active with increasing primary issuance and potential rate declines. Innovations may bring more systematic players, increasing velocity in the market, which is generally positive.

• Question from Alex Kramm (UBS Investment Bank): What specific tokenization initiatives are you pursuing, their timing, revenue opportunities, and how do you ensure you aren't disintermediated?
  Response: Tokenization is viewed as an infrastructure upgrade, not disintermediation. It impacts settlement and collateral mobility. Key initiative is leading the DTCC tokenized treasuries pilot, expected to launch in H2 2026, with revenue opportunities in both traditional trading and network leadership.

• Question from Tyler Mulier (William Blair & Company L.L.C.): Given the stock's recent weakness, is there potential to increase share buybacks?
  Response: The company is considering buybacks, has repurchased ~$150M recently, and has a $500M authorization. Share repurchases are one tool in the capital allocation framework alongside organic growth and M&A.

• Question from Simon Alistair Clinch (Rothschild & Co Redburn): How would you characterize the competitive environment in credit, and what are the biggest catalysts for share improvement?
  Response: Competitive environment is focused. Key catalysts are strong bank partnerships, cross-asset linking, superior data, and solving for risk and banks' trading access.

• Question from Bradley Hayes (TD Cowen): How are you thinking about the impact of tokenization on the swaps market, particularly any risk to volume from smart contracts?
  Response: Smart contracts streamline post-trade processes like affirmations and clearing, enhancing electronification without disintermediating the market value provided by platforms like Tradeweb.

Contradiction Point 1

Outlook on Market Volatility and Catalysts

Contradiction on the expected return of volatility and market activity.

What's the 2026 market outlook and key focus areas, and what factors contributed to the 17% YoY revenue growth in January? - Patrick Moley (Piper Sandler)

2025Q4: The return of risk events and market volatility is also viewed positively as it can drive trading activity. - William Hult(CEO)

What factors are contributing to the recent decline in market volumes, and what is your outlook for volumes over the next 6–12 months? - Benjamin Budish (Barclays Bank PLC)

2025Q3: Volatility is expected to return in 2026 due to timing of rate cuts, macroeconomic surprises, and credit risk events. - William Hult(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Characterization of Electronic Share Trends in U.S. Treasuries

Contradiction on whether the decline in electronic share is a structural shift.

What is the 2026 outlook for mortgage trading, especially if primary/refi activity rebounds, and could competitor innovations in mortgage tech impact your business? - Kenneth Worthington (JPMorgan)

2025Q4: The mortgage market... is becoming more active with increasing primary issuance... - William Hult(CEO)

What caused the recent decline in electronic market share for U.S. treasuries, is it due to package trades, and is the shift structural or temporary? - Jeffrey Schmitt (William Blair & Company L.L.C.)

2025Q3: This trend is not seen as structural but rather a temporary shift in trading behavior linked to low volatility. - William Hult(CEO)

Contradiction Point 3

Outlook for the Mortgage Market

Expresses strong optimism about mortgage market activity and its positioning.

What is the 2026 outlook for the mortgage trading business, considering a potential primary/refi rebound and competitive mortgage tech innovations? - Kenneth Worthington (JPMorgan)

2025Q4: The mortgage market, Tradeweb's 'favorite child,' is becoming more active with increasing primary issuance and duration/convexity adjustments. A further drop in rates would be positive. - William Hult(CEO)

What are the recent trends in U.S. treasuries' market share, their underlying factors, and the strategies to recapture it? - Alexander Kramm (UBS Investment Bank)

2025Q2: The decline in market share (~400 bps year-over-year) was driven by a temporary increase in phone-based trading... The 'biggest competition is really the phone.' - William Hult(CEO)

Contradiction Point 4

Outlook for Fee-per-Million in Swaps

Contradicts the previous constructive outlook for fee-per-million in swaps.

How does increased asset tokenization affect the swaps market and potential risks to volume from smart contract functionality? - Bradley Hayes (TD Cowen)

2025Q4: In the swaps business, the company is focused on growing absolute revenue rather than explicitly discussing fee-per-million dynamics. - Sara Furber(CFO)

What is the expected trend for fee per million in swaps over the next 1-2 years? - Alexander Blostein (Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.)

2025Q2: Absent major changes in compression levels and business mix, the company is constructive on maintaining or modestly growing fee per million in swaps. - Sara Furber(CFO)

Contradiction Point 5

Capital Allocation Priorities for Share Buybacks

Contradiction on the strategic use of share buybacks relative to other capital allocation options.

With the current low valuation, could share buybacks be increased? - Tyler Mulier (William Blair)

2025Q4: The Board has authorized an additional $500 million buyback program... and the company has repurchased about $150 million of stock recently. - Sara Furber(CFO)

How is market uncertainty affecting your M&A appetite and conversations, and at what point would you consider being more opportunistic with share buybacks? - Richard Fellinger (Autonomous Research)

2025Q1: The capital allocation waterfall is unchanged: organic growth, then M&A, then share repurchases (to offset dilution) and dividends. - Sara Furber(CFO)