Tradeweb Markets Gains 3.08% as Technical Indicators Signal Potential Rebound

Tradeweb Markets (TW) recorded a 3.08% gain on October 8, 2025, its second consecutive daily advance which cumulatively lifted the stock by 4.07%. The following technical analysis evaluates this movement within the context of historical price action using a multi-indicator framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent candlestick patterns reveal a potential short-term reversal signal. The October 6 session (-5.81%) formed a long-red candle with a wide high-low range (101.71-110.04), signaling capitulation. This was followed by two consecutive white candles (October 7: +0.97%, October 8: +3.08%) with progressively higher highs and lows, forming a bullish reversal pattern. Key resistance emerges near $112.50-$113.00 (prior swing lows from September), while support rests at the October 6 low of $101.71. The absence of long upper wicks in the rebound suggests sustained buying pressure.
Moving Average Theory
The stock trades below all major moving averages (MAs), confirming a primary downtrend. The 50-day MA (approx. $128) remains below the 100-day MA (approx. $133), which itself trails the 200-day MA (approx. $136), establishing a bearish stacked configuration. The expanding distance between shorter-term MAs and price reflects accelerating downside momentum. A sustained recovery would require conquering the descending 50-day MA, now serving as dynamic resistance.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD metrics show potential nascent bullish momentum: the October 8 close likely triggered a bullish crossover (MACD line crossing above signal line) from deeply negative territory after reaching 1-year oversold extremes. Simultaneously, KDJ oscillators rebounded sharply from oversold zones (K and D lines likely bottomed below 20 on October 6). Both indicators suggest waning bearish momentum, though confirmation requires sustained improvement. Divergence is absent; the price and oscillator lows align chronologically.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded significantly during the October 6 selloff, with prices breaching the lower Bollinger Band (20-day SMA, 2σ deviation). The subsequent rebound toward the mid-Band ($105-$107) suggests mean reversion after an oversold extremity. Band contraction between September and early October had preceded this volatility surge. A close above the 20-day SMA ($106 area) would reinforce near-term bullish potential.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume surged 33% on October 6, validating the breakdown, followed by above-average volume during the rebound (October 7-8). However, volume on up days (+3.08% and +0.97%) was 18% and 24% lower than the capitulation day, respectively, introducing sustainability concerns. This divergence suggests the rebound may lack broad participation, needing higher confirmation volume to signal conviction.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI likely bottomed near or below 30 on October 6, entering oversold territory. The subsequent recovery pushed RSI back above 40 by October 8, indicating easing bearish pressure. However, RSI remains below the key 50 neutral zone, signaling that upward momentum requires further validation. Traders should note that RSI is a lagging indicator and oversold readings can persist in strong downtrends.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the dominant one-year downtrend (peak: $147.49 on July 30, 2025; trough: $101.71 on October 6), key retracement levels are established. The recent rebound stalled just below the 23.6% level at $112.51 – aligning with the September support-turned-resistance zone. Confluence exists here with the September 23 low. Higher hurdles stand at $119.20 (38.2%) and $124.60 (50%). The rebound’s failure to breach the 23.6% Fibonacci threshold suggests persistent bearish control without stronger catalysts.
Concluding Synthesis
Confluence appears between oversold signals (RSI, Bollinger Bands, KDJ/MACD) and bullish candlestick patterns, justifying the near-term rebound. However, multiple technical headwinds persist: volume divergence, Fibonacci resistance at $112.51, and stacked moving averages overhead. The lack of MACD/price divergence and failure to reclaim the 23.6% retracement reinforce the primary downtrend. A sustained breakout above $112.51 with expanding volume could catalyze a larger relief rally toward $119, while failure risks retesting the $101.71 trough.