Traders Hedge for FOMC, Yet Bitcoin's Strong Hold Signals Deepening Confidence

Bitcoin futures traders are actively de-risking ahead of the upcoming FOMC meeting, while spot demand remains strong, as evidenced by the premium observed on Coinbase. Market participants are shifting strategies as they anticipate potential monetary policy adjustments, with traders seeking to avoid large losses from sudden market moves. This activity contrasts with the robustness of spot markets, where demand appears to be holding firm.

According to recent on-chain data, CEX holdings of Bitcoin have declined significantly, dropping to 240,000 BTC as of July 11, 2025—down more than 36,000 BTC from the beginning of the year. This reduction in exchange-held Bitcoin reflects a broader trend of institutional and retail investors moving assets to off-exchange storage, which is often viewed as a sign of increased confidence in the asset class. Notably, OKX was the only major exchange to record a net inflow of BTC in the last 24 hours, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment or strategy among traders.

High-net-worth traders and institutional players are also making significant moves. AguilaTrades, a known institutional investor, holds a massive 3,000 BTC long position valued at $356 million and has accumulated a substantial unrealized profit of $29.32 million. This position is notable for its potential to influence the broader market, particularly as the trader approaches breakeven after incurring significant losses earlier in the year. Meanwhile, Japanese fashion brand ANAP added 28.74 BTC to its holdings, bringing its total to 229.23 BTC. These actions indicate continued institutional interest in Bitcoin as both an investment and a hedge.

On the institutional side, ARK Invest recently added 498.526 BTC to its portfolio via its 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, valued at approximately $55.4 million. This move is consistent with the broader trend of institutional adoption, which has gained momentum as regulatory clarity improves and market infrastructure continues to expand. Additionally, Japanese firm Remixpoint increased its Bitcoin holdings by 116.72 BTC, bringing its total to 1,168.28 BTC, further reinforcing the growing role of Japanese corporations in the cryptocurrency space.

The spot market is also showing strength, with a growing premium on Coinbase indicating strong demand for physical Bitcoin. This premium, which reflects the price difference between spot and futures markets, is typically a sign of market optimism. The data suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for immediate exposure to Bitcoin, which could indicate expectations of further price appreciation in the near term. The premium also highlights the disparity between the rapidly evolving spot market and the more cautious approach being taken by futures traders.

Looking ahead, the market will closely watch the upcoming FOMC meeting for clues about the future direction of U.S. monetary policy. The de-risking activity among futures traders suggests that market participants are preparing for potential volatility, with many positioning themselves to hedge against unexpected outcomes. However, the continued inflow of capital into Bitcoin ETFs and spot holdings indicates that the overall demand for Bitcoin remains robust, despite the near-term uncertainty. This dynamic sets the stage for an interesting period of market activity, with the potential for significant price movements depending on the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions and their market implications.