Traders Say Bitcoin Still Due for 'Next Leg Lower' Targeting $46K BTC Price

Bitcoin has begun to move in sync with the broader downtrend in risk assets, particularly US equities, raising concerns among traders about a potential 50% drop in price according to analysis. The renewed correlation has triggered bearish technical and macroeconomic signals, with price action resembling a bear-flag pattern observed earlier this year. Analysts warn that a breakdown in this pattern could open the door to new multiyear lows for Bitcoin.

Leggett & Platt reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $0.22, missing the forecast of $0.23, while revenue declined by 11% year-over-year to $939 million as earnings data shows. The stock dropped 4.73% in pre-market trading, reflecting ongoing challenges in the residential market despite improvements in operating cash flow and debt reduction. The company has also revised its net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio from 3.8x to 2.4x.

Bitcoin is currently below the 200-week exponential moving average and faces elevated macroeconomic headwinds, including rising oil prices, inflationary pressures, and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts according to market analysis. On-chain data suggest capitulation among long-term holders, while gold's bear-market status and oil's firm position above $100 per barrel amplify the risk environment for risk assets.

Why the Move Happened

The renewed correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has historically been a precursor to significant declines in the cryptocurrency's price according to research. Since 2018, sharp recoveries in BTC-SPX correlation have typically preceded broader Bitcoin market declines of around 50%. This pattern has raised concerns among analysts that a broader market sell-off could drag Bitcoin lower.

Bitcoin's current price action resembles a bear-flag pattern observed earlier in the year as technical analysis indicates. A breakdown from this pattern could accelerate downward momentum, potentially pushing the price below $50,000 if selling pressure intensifies. Traders are watching for signs of a short-lived upside rally, which would need to clear key resistance levels to alter the bearish narrative.

How Markets Responded

Leggett & Platt's earnings miss and revenue decline have had a direct impact on its stock price, which dropped 4.73% in pre-market trading according to market data. The company has managed to reduce its net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio from 3.8x to 2.4x, but ongoing challenges in residential markets continue to weigh on performance. The stock's reaction reflects market concerns about sustained volume declines and macroeconomic pressures.

Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 has re-established a bearish technical outlook according to market analysis. The price closed the week below the 200-week EMA at around $67,400, raising concerns about further downside. Over $400 million in liquidations have occurred in the last 24 hours, signaling persistent selling pressure and heightened volatility in the market.

What Analysts Are Watching

Analysts are closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators, including oil prices, inflation, and the Federal Reserve's policy path according to market reports. A delayed rate-cut cycle and rising inflation could amplify the bearish outlook for both Bitcoin and equities. The renewed correlation between BTC and the S&P 500 is seen as a warning sign that a broader market correction could be on the horizon.

On-chain data suggest that long-term holders are capitulating, which could accelerate further price declines according to technical indicators. Traders are also watching for signs of a short-lived upside rally in Bitcoin, which would need to break through key resistance levels to shift the narrative. The coming months will likely be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin remains in a bearish trend or stabilizes in the $50,000 range.