Trade Wars + Geopolitical Risks = Gold's Unstoppable Rally

The gold price has shown a significant upward trend, with both spot and futures prices hitting record highs.

Specific market data shows that around 11:00 a.m. on Thursday, spot gold surged to $3,059.63, surpassing the historical record set on March 20, with intraday gains reaching up to$40.

At the same time, the main contract for New York gold futures briefly broke through the $3,100 mark, reaching a high of $3,102.2 per ounce, with intraday gains exceeding $50. The price has since retreated slightly to $3,093.8.

Media analysis suggests that the announcement of new automotive tariffs by U.S. President Trump the previous day has significantly escalated global trade tensions, weighing on U.S. stock markets and prompting investors to flock to safe-haven assets.

According to Trump, the U.S. will impose a 25% tariff on all imported automobiles and auto parts, with the measures taking effect on April 2. It is worth noting that April 2 is also the date when the U.S. reciprocal tariffs are set to be implemented.

Analysts believe this move will disrupt the automotive industry and global supply chains, deal a heavy blow to traditional U.S. allies, drive up car prices, and hurt American consumers. Trade partners—from Canada to the EU—have vowed to deliver a decisive response.

Before gold futures hit their new high, Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, noted, It looks like we're going to see $3,100 (for gold futures) very soon, with the main catalyst being the safe-haven buying driven by Trump's tariffs.

Beyond tariffs, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine have also provided upward momentum for gold. Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, added that gold is further supported by strong central bank inflows and robust ETF demand.

On Wednesday, top U.S. investment bank Goldman Sachs Group raised its year-end 2025 price forecast for spot gold from $3,100 per ounce to $3,300, citing stronger-than-expected ETF inflows and sustained central bank demand.