U.S. Trade Policy Uncertainty Reshapes Global Shipping Valuations: Legal Setbacks and Strategic Shifts in Key Carriers

The August 2025 federal appeals court ruling that most Trump-era tariffs are illegal has sent shockwaves through the shipping and logistics sector, forcing companies to recalibrate strategies amid legal and economic uncertainty. The court’s decision, which invalidated tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), hinges on the constitutional argument that tariff authority belongs to Congress, not the executive branch [1]. While the tariffs remain in effect until mid-October pending a Supreme Court review, the ruling has already triggered a reevaluation of trade routes, capital allocation, and long-term profitability for global carriers.

Legal Uncertainty and Trade Flow Reconfigurations

The invalidated tariffs—particularly the 10% global “reciprocal tariffs” on nearly 60 countries—have disrupted established trade patterns. Companies are now rerouting shipments to avoid double tariff burdens, such as importing directly into Canada instead of the U.S. and then into Canada [2]. For example, Maersk reported that North American import declines were offset by robust growth in Europe, Latin America, and Africa, leading the company to raise its 2025 full-year guidance to $8–$9.5 billion in EBITDA [3]. This shift underscores how carriers are prioritizing geographic diversification over U.S.-centric trade corridors.

Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s continuation of Trump-era tariffs—such as 100% duties on Chinese electric vehicles—has created a fragmented policy landscape. Analysts warn that if the Supreme Court upholds the August ruling, the U.S. could face a $159 billion refund liability for collected tariffs, further destabilizing global trade negotiations [4].

Capital Allocation and Valuation Shifts

The legal limbo has accelerated capital reallocation in the sector. COSCO, for instance, announced plans to expand its container fleet in anticipation of potential U.S. tariff adjustments, a move aimed at maintaining competitiveness amid shifting alliance structures [5]. Similarly, UPS has emphasized the need for enhanced supply chain visibility and compliance tools to navigate stacking tariffs and new reporting requirements [6].

Valuation metrics for key carriers reflect this volatility. Maersk’s P/E ratio has contracted due to near-term uncertainties but remains supported by its diversified logistics platform and strong performance in non-U.S. markets [3]. Conversely, COSCO’s valuation has seen modest gains as it capitalizes on emerging markets like Vietnam and India, where foreign direct investment (FDI) surged to $81 billion in 2025 as firms de-risk supply chains [7].

Long-Term Profitability and Strategic Adaptation

The sector’s long-term profitability hinges on adaptability. Companies are adopting multidisciplinary teams to align tariff strategies with broader business goals, ensuring compliance while optimizing lead times and vendor relationships [8]. For example, Maersk’s revised 2025 container volume growth forecast of 2–4% highlights its confidence in market resilience despite U.S. trade policy turbulence [3].

However, risks persist. The potential reopening of the Red Sea route could reduce container shipping volumes by 6%, while U.S. tariffs may further erode spot rates by 30–40% compared to 2024 [9]. These pressures are pushing carriers toward defensive assets like Free Trade Zone (FTZ) storage and geographic diversification, with Latin America and Southeast Asia emerging as key hubs [10].

Conclusion

The legal and economic uncertainty surrounding Trump-era tariffs has become a defining factor in the shipping sector’s valuation and strategic direction. While carriers like Maersk and COSCO demonstrate resilience through diversification and fleet investments, the Supreme Court’s October decision will likely determine the next phase of trade flows and profitability. Investors must remain attuned to regulatory shifts and geopolitical dynamics, as the sector’s ability to adapt will dictate its long-term viability in an increasingly fragmented global economy.

Source:
[1] Most Trump tariffs are not legal, US appeals court rules [https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/most-trump-tariffs-are-not-legal-us-appeals-court-rules-2025-08-30/]
[2] The global supply chain's reaction to the Trump tariffs [https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en-us/posts/corporates/supply-chains-reaction-tariffs/]
[3] Maersk raises full-year guidance amid volatile external environment [https://www.maersk.com/news/articles/2025/08/07/maersk-raises-full-year-guidance-amid-volatile-external-environment]
[4] Appellate court rules Trump's global tariffs illegal, but ... [https://www.utilitydive.com/news/appellate-court-majority-rules-trump-tariffs-illegal/758974/]
[5] Cosco to boost box fleet ahead of Trump tariffs and alliance shuffle [https://theloadstar.com/cosco-to-boost-box-fleet-ahead-of-trump-tariffs-and-alliance-shuffle/]
[6] 2025 Tariffs and Their Impact on Global Trade [https://www.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/2025-us-tariffs-impact-global-trade]
[7] The Legal Unraveling of Trump's Tariffs and Its Impact on Global Supply Chains and Equity Markets [https://www.ainvest.com/news/legal-unraveling-trump-tariffs-impact-global-supply-chains-equity-markets-2508/]
[8] Strategies for tariff uncertainty [https://www.deloitte.com/us/en/insights/topics/leadership/strategies-tariff-uncertainty.html]
[9] Shipping profit boom evaporates on US tariffs, Red Sea ... [https://m.economictimes.com/small-biz/trade/exports/insights/shipping-profit-boom-evaporates-on-us-tariffs-red-sea-reopening/articleshow/118673401.cms]
[10] Navigating the 2025 Global Tariffs Landscape - United States [https://www.ups.com/us/en/supplychain/resources/news-and-market-updates/navigating-global-tariffs]