US Trade Measures Spark Negotiation Under Firearm Threat, Says Celso Amorim

US action forces Brazil to negotiate under threat, says Celso Amorim. The US sudden investigation into Brazil's unfair trade practices has shaken the Brazilian government, as they try to find ways to negotiate 50% tariffs announced last week. Amorim, a former foreign minister and Lula's top geopolitical advisor, called the measure unjustified and a threat to bilateral relations. He criticized the Section 301 investigation, accusing Brazil of imposing unjust restrictions on US exports. Amorim described the measure as "the atomic bomb of commercial arms." The investigation aims to evaluate Brazilian policies on digital commerce, tariffs, corruption measures, intellectual property, ethanol market access, and deforestation. The Brazilian government was surprised by the timing of the investigation and has requested talks with the US.

The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) has opened a Section 301 investigation into Brazil, accusing the country of unfair trade practices that restrict US exports. The probe, announced by US President Donald Trump, has sent shockwaves through Brazil's government and strained bilateral relations.

Celso Amorim, former foreign minister and top geopolitical advisor to Brazilian President Luiz Inacio da Silva, criticized the investigation, describing it as "the atomic bomb of commercial arms." Amorim accused the US of using the probe to pressure Brazil and called the measure unjustified. He argued that the failure of the World Trade Organization's dispute resolution mechanism has further complicated the conflict [3].

The investigation, launched on July 15, 2025, aims to evaluate Brazil's policies related to digital trade, electronic payment services, tariffs, anti-corruption measures, intellectual property protection, ethanol market access, and deforestation [1]. The Brazilian government was caught off guard by the sudden probe and has requested talks with the US to address the threatened 50% tariffs, set to take effect on August 2025 [3].

Amorim's comments reflect Brazil's surprise and dismay at the US's aggressive stance. The Brazilian government's priority is to find a solution to the threatened tariffs, which could have significant economic implications for both countries. The investigation has added to the existing trade tensions, with Brazil facing potential secondary sanctions from the US due to its oil purchases from Russia [3].

Investors should monitor the USTR's final ruling, expected by early 2026, and the September 3, 2025, public hearing for clues on the investigation's trajectory. The trade dispute presents both risks and opportunities, with sectors like ethanol, digital payments, and agriculture potentially benefiting from a resolution [2].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-15/us-trade-representative-opens-section-301-probe-into-brazil
[2] https://www.ainvest.com/news/navigating-brazil-trade-tensions-strategic-opportunities-ethanol-tech-agriculture-2507/
[3] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-16/us-probe-forcing-brazil-to-negotiate-at-gunpoint-lula-aide-says