The Trade Desk (TTD) Soars 3.78% as Bullish Momentum and Mixed Technical Signals Fuel Short-Term Optimism

The Trade Desk (TTD) has seen a 3.78% gain in the most recent session, marking two consecutive days of positive price action with a total increase of 5.05%. This short-term momentum suggests potential bullish bias, warranting a closer look at key technical levels and indicators to assess trend sustainability and reversal risks.

Candlestick Theory

Recent candlestick patterns indicate a bullish engulfing formation, with the price closing above the previous session’s high. Key support levels can be identified at $43.10 (2025-09-19) and $42.00 (implied by recent volatility), while resistance appears at $46.675 (2025-09-22 high). A breakout above $46.675 could trigger further gains toward $49.20 (2025-09-08 high), though a bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD may need monitoring for potential countertrend signals.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day moving average (DMA) currently sits at $50.76, while the 200-DMA is at $70.32. The price is trading above the 50-DMA but significantly below the 200-DMA, suggesting a mixed signal: short-term bullish momentum versus long-term bearish bias. The 100-DMA at $60.15 further reinforces this divergence, indicating potential for a retest of key moving averages before a directional resolution.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line crossed above the signal line recently (Golden Cross), suggesting a short-term bullish signal. However, the KDJ oscillator shows overbought conditions (K at 85.0, D at 78.5), aligning with the RSI’s 72.3 reading. This confluence of overbought momentum indicators may indicate a near-term correction, though the MACD’s positive divergence from price suggests trend resilience.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the price near the upper Bollinger Band ($46.675). This suggests overbought conditions and a potential pullback toward the 20-day SMA at $45.37. Band contraction is not evident, indicating sustained volatility rather than a lull preceding a breakout.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged in the past two sessions (23.6M and 52.9M shares), validating the recent price gains. However, volume on the most recent session is lower than the prior day’s, hinting at possible exhaustion. A sustained increase in volume during upward moves would strengthen the bullish case.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI stands at 72.3, indicating overbought conditions. While this may suggest a short-term pullback, the RSI’s alignment with the MACD’s bullish signal implies the uptrend could persist. Divergence between RSI and price (if emerging) would serve as a cautionary sign.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels derived from the recent high ($88.33, 2025-08-07) and low ($43.10, 2025-09-19) include 61.8% at $64.50 and 50% at $65.72. The current price of $46.15 suggests a potential retest of the 38.2% retracement level at $55.50 before resuming upward bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy of buying TTD on a MACD Golden Cross and holding for 10 days achieved an 85.01% return, outperforming the benchmark by 42.02%. This aligns with the recent MACD crossover and suggests strong momentum continuation. The strategy’s 18.62% CAGR and 1.13 Sharpe ratio further validate its robustness, though the lack of drawdowns implies ideal conditions may not persist. Integrating this with the current RSI and volume dynamics, the strategy’s success hinges on the confluence of MACD momentum and sustained volume during the holding period.