Trade Desk Stock Plummets 6.62% Extending 38.61% August Crash Downtrend

The Trade Desk (TTD) declined 6.62% in its most recent session, closing at $50.76 on high volume, continuing its pronounced downtrend following a severe single-day decline of 38.61% on August 8th, 2025. This analysis examines the technical landscape using multiple methodologies.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action reveals persistent bearish momentum. The sharp sell-off on August 8th forms an exceptionally long, bearish marubozu candle, indicating overwhelming selling pressure and establishing a significant resistance zone between $54.23-$57.00. Subsequent sessions, particularly August 11th, 12th, and 14th, formed bearish continuation patterns (like three black crows), reinforcing the downtrend and failing to close above the prior day's highs. Key support is identified near $48.50-$49.00 (the April 2025 lows), while resistance is firmly established at $53.50-$54.50 (the recent failed recovery attempts and the high of the crash candle).
Moving Average Theory
All major moving averages exhibit strong bearish alignment and resistance. The short-term 50-day MA (~$73.50) and 100-day MA (~$81.20) slope steeply downwards, residing well above the current price. Critically, the long-term 200-day MA (~$88.50) has recently begun a decisive downward turn, confirming the transition to a primary bearish trend across timeframes. The current price sits far below all key MAs, emphasizing the downtrend's strength and presenting significant overhead resistance. The downward-sloping MAs consistently cap any minor rally attempts.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD (12,26,9) is deeply entrenched in negative territory below the zero line and its signal line, confirming strong bearish momentum. However, a potential positive divergence is emerging as the MACD histogram is forming higher lows while price made lower lows from mid-July to mid-August – this suggests waning downside momentum and could precede a technical bounce, though it requires confirmation. The KDJ indicator (9,3,3) shows the %K line near 20 and the %D line near 25, approaching oversold territory. While this may indicate short-term exhaustion, the bearish crossover remains intact, and the KDJ has consistently stayed below the 50 mid-line since the crash, supporting the ongoing downtrend. Oversold readings in strong downtrends can persist.
Bollinger Bands
Bollinger Bands (20,2) underwent a massive expansion during the August 8th crash, reflecting a volatility shock. Since then, while the bands have narrowed slightly, they remain relatively wide, indicating above-average volatility persists. Price has largely tracked the lower band downwards, a characteristic of strong bearish trends. While a contraction phase is possible, suggesting a period of consolidation, the current position hugging the lower band signifies continued downside dominance. A decisive move back inside the bands would be the first technical sign of stabilizing price action.
Volume-Price Relationship
Volume provides crucial context. The August 8th crash occurred on extraordinary volume (over 105M shares), decisively confirming the bearish breakdown. Subsequent down days, including the recent August 14th session (~33.5M shares), continue to show above-average volume, confirming the acceptance of lower prices by the market. Conversely, minor up days since the crash generally saw lower volume (e.g., August 6th, ~8.65M shares), suggesting weak conviction behind recovery attempts. This volume profile validates the sustainability of the downtrend, as selling pressure remains dominant.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads approximately 29, entering oversold territory (<30). This reflects the intense recent selling pressure. While an oversold RSI can foreshadow a bounce, its reliability as a standalone reversal signal in a strong downtrend is low. The RSI consistently failed to reach overbought (>70) levels during the brief consolidation/recovery attempts after the crash (peaking near 55-60), indicating underlying weakness. The current oversold condition suggests the decline may be near-term exhausted, potentially allowing for a technical rebound, but it doesn't negate the prevailing downtrend structure.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major decline from the December 2024 high (approx. $139.11) to the August 14th close ($50.76) establishes key potential retracement hurdles. The 23.6% retracement sits near $71.70, while the 38.2% level lies near $84.70 – both significant resistance zones aligning with recent congestion areas. The critical 50% retracement level at $94.90 represents major overhead resistance. These levels provide clear upside targets and resistance zones should a more substantial recovery unfold. Conversely, the continuation of the downtrend targets the 127.2% extension near $38.50. Confluence exists at the $70-$72 level, where the 23.6% Fib and the 50-day MA converge.
Synthesis and Confluence
The technical picture for The Trade Desk remains overwhelmingly bearish. Multiple indicators align negatively: sustained price below all key moving averages (confirming downtrend), high-volume distribution days, bearish candlestick patterns, price pinned at the lower Bollinger Band, and weak KDJ/MACD positions (though showing nascent divergence). The sole potential counterpoint is the oversold RSI and the tentative positive divergence on the MACD histogram, hinting at possible short-term exhaustion. Key confluence resistance exists around $53.50-$54.50 (recent highs, intra-day resistance from Aug 11-13). Above that, the $70-$72 zone (23.6% Fib & 50-day MA) represents a formidable barrier. Support is weak until the $45-$49 area (April 2025 lows, near the 127.2% Fib extension zone). Any counter-trend bounce appears likely to face significant supply (resistance) at progressively lower levels established by the MAs and Fibs, making the path of least resistance demonstrably lower for the foreseeable future. Probabilities favour continued downside pressure or consolidation within the downtrend channel.