Tractor Supply Jumps 3.9% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Continuation

Tractor Supply (TSCO) gained 3.90% in the most recent trading session, closing at $56.76 on substantial volume of 8.78 million shares. This strong bullish momentum forms the basis for the following technical analysis, which evaluates multiple indicators across the prescribed framework.
Candlestick Theory
Recent price action shows a bullish reversal pattern emerging from the $50.50–$51.00 support zone established in late May 2025. The July 7 session formed a long-bodied green candle, closing near the daily high of $56.90, signaling strong buying conviction. Key resistance emerges at the $57.00–$57.50 area, aligning with the March 2025 swing high of $59.73. A confirmed break above this resistance may trigger further upside, while failure could see retracement toward the $54.00–$54.50 support level, where multiple June troughs converge.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day SMA is currently positioned at $53.20, the 100-day at $51.80, and the 200-day at $49.40, confirming a bullish long-term structure. The ascending order of these averages (50 > 100 > 200) reflects a sustained uptrend. Notably, the price recently reclaimed the 50-day SMA after a brief consolidation, while maintaining a significant 13% premium above the 200-day SMA. This configuration suggests robust intermediate-term momentum, though a bearish crossover between shorter-term averages remains absent.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD histogram readings turned positive in late June 2025, with the signal line crossing above the MACD line, confirming building upward momentum. KDJ shows the %K line (76) above the %D line (70) in overbought territory, typically suggesting near-term exhaustion. However, both oscillators exhibit bullish convergence with price action, implying strength. Divergence risk emerges if KDJ sustains above 80 while price momentum slows, which may precede a minor pullback.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded significantly during the July 7 rally as price breached the upper Bollinger Band (20-day SMA at $54.90 + 2σ). This "band walk" phenomenon often signals strong directional momentum. However, the resulting band width expansion may foresee a short-term consolidation phase. Immediate support resides at the middle band ($54.90), while sustained trading above $55.50 would reinforce bullish control.
Volume-Price Relationship
The July 7 advance occurred on 8.78 million shares—53% above the 30-day average volume—validating bullish conviction. This volume surge coincided with a decisive breakout above the $54.50 resistance level, confirming accumulation. Volume patterns throughout June consistently supported upward moves, with higher volume on up days (e.g., June 30: +2.05% on 5.37M shares) and lower volume during pullbacks, suggesting limited distribution.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads 67, approaching overbought territory (70+) but not yet signaling exhaustion. Recent consolidation in mid-June reset RSI from a peak of 73 to a low of 42, establishing healthier momentum foundations before the current advance. While an RSI reading above 70 could trigger short-term profit-taking, the absence of bearish divergence suggests room for further upside before warning signs materialize.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing low of $46.85 (April 24, 2025) and high of $56.90 (July 7, 2025) identifies key retracement zones. The 23.6% level at $54.50 has transitioned from resistance to support after the recent breakout. Confluence exists at the 38.2% level ($53.00), which aligns with the 100-day SMA and the June swing low. The 50% retracement at $51.85 represents a critical floor should a deeper pullback occur. Current price action holding above $54.50 suggests bullish continuation toward the 0% extension level ($56.90+).
Confluence and Divergence Observations
Confluent bullish signals are evident, with price trading above all major moving averages, MACD/KDJ momentum alignment, and volume-supported breakout above Fibonacci resistance at $54.50. The lone divergence is KDJ’s overbought reading against RSI’s neutral stance, introducing minor caution that near-term consolidation may precede further upside. Overall, technical structure favors continued strength, with $57.50 as the next significant resistance. A close below $54.50 would be required to invalidate the short-term bullish thesis.