Tracking the Fed's Interest Rate Moves Since 2000

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates on hold, ranging from 4.25% to 4.5%. The chart below shows how the central bank has steered policy since 2000, including through challenges like the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic. The Fed's decision on interest rates will be announced on Wednesday.

The Federal Reserve is anticipated to maintain interest rates within the 4.25% to 4.5% range during its June meeting, according to market expectations. This decision is expected to be announced on Wednesday, June 17, 2025.

The central bank's policy decisions have been influenced by various economic challenges, including the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, as illustrated in the chart below [Chart]. Despite recent economic data showing signs of strength, the Federal Reserve remains cautious due to uncertainties arising from tariffs and other policy changes.

The Federal Reserve's decision will be influenced by the "dot plot," which provides insights into the central bank's projections for the path of monetary policy and the economy. The March dot plot indicated a baseline forecast of two 25 basis-point cuts for 2025, but recent economic data and market expectations suggest that the Fed may revise this projection downward [1].

Market participants have scaled back their predictions for interest rate cuts this year, with bond futures traders seeing a 60% chance that the next rate cut will occur in September. The Federal Reserve's decision to hold rates steady is supported by the current economic data, which shows steady inflation and a stable labor market, despite uncertainties ahead [2].

The Federal Reserve's independence is a critical factor in its ability to make unbiased monetary policy decisions. Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler has defended the independence of central banks, highlighting that it is essential for achieving good economic outcomes and maintaining inflation stability [3].

In conclusion, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.5% during its June meeting. The central bank's decision will be closely watched by investors and financial professionals, as it provides insights into the Fed's economic projections and future policy direction.

References:
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2025/06/17/fed-rate-decision-out-today-interest-rate-cut-not-expected-but-this-is-what-can-still-move-markets/
[2] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
[3] https://www.moomoo.com/news/post/59964786/record-tr4cking-news-default