TPG Slides 11.5% Since September High As Bearish Signals Dominate Technical Charts

Candlestick Theory
TPG exhibits a distinct bearish engulfing pattern formed on September 23–24 (65.52 high to 60.50 close), signaling rejection at resistance. This triggered a downtrend to 55.38 on October 2, establishing immediate support. The recent 0.37% gain on October 2 shows minor recovery, but the long upper wick (high: 57.02) indicates persistent selling pressure. Key resistance is reinforced at 57.80–58.90 (September 29–30 highs), while critical support lies at 55.38 (October 2 low). A close below 55.38 may accelerate declines toward 53.50.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approx. 58.40) crossed below the 100-day MA (approx. 59.80) in late September, confirming a bearish near-term bias. TPG’s current price (56.37) trades below all three major MAs, highlighting sustained downward momentum. The 200-day MA (approx. 58.70) acts as dynamic resistance, recently repelling rallies in late September. The widening gap between shorter and longer-term MAs suggests strengthening bearish momentum, though a reconvergence near 56.00 may offer interim stability.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD remains in bearish territory, with the signal line hovering below zero since mid-September. Recent histogram contraction suggests slowing downward momentum but no clear reversal signal. KDJ’s %K (20) and %D (25) reside in oversold territory, implying potential for a short-term bounce. However, their persistent downward slope since September 23 cautions against premature bullish bets. Divergence is noted: KDJ’s oversold conditions contrast with MACD’s bearish stance, reflecting unresolved tension between momentum exhaustion and trend direction.
Bollinger Bands
Bands expanded sharply during the September 24 sell-off (60.50 close, -6%), signaling volatility surge. Recent contraction (Bandwidth at 15%, down from 25% peak) indicates consolidation. Price currently tests the lower band (55.50), typically supportive, but failure to rebound could trigger a volatility breakout. A close below 55.50 would confirm bearish continuation, while recovery above the midline (58.00) is needed to shift bias neutral.
Volume-Price Relationship
Distribution patterns dominate: September’s decline from 65.52 featured above-average volume (1.08M shares vs. 3-month avg 1.4M), validating bearish conviction. October 1–2 saw reduced volume during the drop to 55.38, suggesting limited panic. However, absence of accumulation volume on rebounds (e.g., September 29 +0.51% on below-avg volume) undermines recovery sustainability. Breakouts above 58.00 require volume >1.5M shares to confirm legitimacy.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI (31) lingers near oversold territory, aligning with KDJ’s signal. Historically, sub-30 readings in May 2025 (46.00 low) and August 2024 (41.60 low) preceded reversals. However, RSI diverged negatively in late September (price made higher highs while RSI declined), reinforcing bearish momentum. Current levels warrant caution—TPG may consolidate or rebound weakly, but oversold RSI alone is insufficient to predict a bottom without volume/MACD confirmation.
Fibonacci Retracement
Using the swing low of 46.00 (May 23, 2025) and swing high of 65.52 (September 23, 2025), key retracement levels are: 61.8% (58.90), 50% (55.76), and 38.2% (52.62). TPG breached the 50% support (55.76) on October 1–2, testing 55.38. The 38.2% level (52.62) now serves as the next downside target. Confluence exists at 55.75–56.00 (50% Fibonacci + psychological level), which must be reclaimed to invalidate the bearish structure.
Synthesis of Confluence and Divergence
Confluence emerges at 55.75–56.00 (Fibonacci 50%, prior support, and psychological level), critical for near-term direction. Bearish consensus is evident from moving average alignment, Bollinger Band pressure, and volume-backed breakdowns. Key divergence exists between momentum oscillators (RSI/KDJ oversold) and trend indicators (MACD/bearish MA cross), suggesting potential for a technical bounce within a broader downtrend. Probabilistically, sustained trade below 56.00 favors a descent toward 52.60 (38.2% Fibonacci), while a close above 57.80 (September resistance) is needed to challenge bearish momentum.