Is TPG Still a Buy After the Jackson Financial Deal?

The recent partnership between TPG Inc. and Jackson Financial Inc. has reignited investor interest in the asset management giant, but whether the stock remains a compelling buy hinges on two critical questions: Is its valuation realistic given industry benchmarks, and can its recent momentum be sustained?

Valuation Realism: A Premium with Caveats

TPG's valuation metrics post-Jackson deal suggest a mixed picture. The company trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 671.05, a figure that appears extreme at first glance but is tempered by a forward P/E of 23.36, reflecting optimism about future earnings growth. Its enterprise value/EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio stands at 47.17, and its price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 8.74 according to company reports. These metrics starkly contrast with industry averages. For instance, the 2025 asset management sector's average EV/EBITDA is approximately 10.1x, while TPG's 11.5x multiple places it at a modest premium. However, its P/B ratio of 8.74 dwarfs the sector's 2.49 benchmark according to Yahoo Finance, indicating a significant disconnect from peers.

This premium may be justified by TPG's strategic partnership with Jackson, which includes managing $12 billion in assets and a $500 million investment for a 6.5% stake. Yet, analysts remain divided. UBS has reiterated a Buy rating, citing the partnership as a growth catalyst, while Seeking Alpha downgraded its recommendation to Buy from Strong Buy, arguing that TPG's valuation has become "less compelling" according to Business Wire. The disparity underscores the tension between TPG's ambitious growth narrative and its current pricing.

Momentum Sustainability: Hype vs. Substance

TPG's stock price closed at $66.96 in late December 2025, slightly above a calculated fair value of $66.00, suggesting the market has already priced in much of the Jackson deal's potential. This raises concerns about momentum sustainability. While the partnership could scale to $20 billion in assets under management (AUM) over time according to company announcements, achieving this target depends on execution risks, including market conditions and regulatory hurdles.

Moreover, TPG's financial performance, though positive, lacks the explosive growth needed to justify its lofty multiples. The company reported $4.26 billion in revenue and $61.52 million in net income over the past 12 months, with earnings per share of $0.10. These figures, while respectable, do not align with the high-growth expectations embedded in its valuation. Analysts at BlackRock note that the asset management sector's forward P/E ratio trades at a 14% premium to its 5-year average, reflecting broader market optimism. However, TPG's ability to outperform peers will depend on its capacity to convert the Jackson partnership into consistent revenue streams.

A Watchlist for 2026

The upcoming Q4 2025 financial results, scheduled for release on February 9, 2026, will be pivotal. These results could either validate TPG's premium valuation or expose its vulnerabilities. Jackson's 2026 financial targets, to be published alongside TPG's report, will also provide critical context. Investors should scrutinize metrics such as AUM growth, fee income, and cost synergies from the partnership.

In the interim, TPG's valuation remains a double-edged sword. While its forward P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples suggest reasonable expectations for growth, the P/B ratio's divergence from industry norms signals potential overvaluation. The Jackson deal offers a clear path to scale, but execution risks and macroeconomic headwinds-such as rising interest rates and shifting investor preferences-could temper its impact.

Conclusion

TPG's partnership with Jackson Financial has undeniably enhanced its strategic profile, but the stock's valuation realism and momentum sustainability remain contingent on execution. For now, the Buy ratings from UBS and others reflect confidence in the partnership's long-term potential, but investors should approach with caution. The February 2026 earnings report will be a litmus test for whether TPG can justify its premium pricing-or if the market's enthusiasm will need recalibration.