TPB Earnings Soar, But Shares Still Plunge 20% This Week

Turning Point Brands (TPB) reported fiscal 2025 Q4 earnings on March 2, 2026, with revenue rising 29.2% to $121.01 million and net income surging 281.6% to $11.64 million. The company exceeded estimates, with EPS climbing 215.8% to $0.43. Guidance for 2026 projects Modern Oral revenue of $180–190 million, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory despite short-term market volatility.

Revenue

Revenue growth was driven by Stoker’s segment, which saw a 70% sales increase, and Modern Oral nicotine pouches, which surged 266% year-over-year. Total revenue reached $121.01 million, a 29.2% jump from $93.67 million in 2024 Q4.

Earnings/Net Income

Net income soared to $11.64 million in 2025 Q4, a 281.6% increase from $3.05 million in 2024 Q4, while EPS rose to $0.43, up 215.8% year-over-year. The substantial EPS and net income growth underscores the company’s strong profitability and operational efficiency.

Price Action

The stock price declined 1.06% in the latest trading day, 20.05% for the week, and 12.84% month-to-date, reflecting short-term volatility.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Holding TPB shares for 30 days after quarterly dips has historically yielded strong returns, with a 30-day gain of 13.07% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 95.48%. Over three years, the stock delivered a 458.81% cumulative gain. Positive analyst sentiment, including Oppenheimer’s “Outperform” rating, supports long-term optimism, though valuation concerns (44.8% overvaluation) and regulatory risks persist.

CEO Commentary

CEO Graham Purdy highlighted 29% revenue growth to $121 million, driven by Modern Oral’s 266% net sales increase to $41.3 million. Strategic investments in U.S. manufacturing and expanded distribution for FRE and ALP brands were emphasized, with Purdy expressing confidence in achieving double-digit market share in the $10 billion nicotine pouch category.

Guidance

TPB guided 2026 Modern Oral net revenue to $180–190 million and Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $24–27 million. CAPEX is projected at $4–5 million for 2026, with a tax rate of 23–26%. Purdy noted short-term EBITDA volatility from Q2 ALP launch investments but reiterated long-term growth plans through sales and marketing expansion.

Additional News

No material non-earnings-related news emerged for TPB in the three weeks preceding the March 2 earnings report. The company’s focus remains on executing its 2026 guidance and expanding its nicotine pouch market share.