Tower Semiconductor Surges 6.16% on Intel Partnership and Bullish Technicals

Summary
• Tower Semiconductor (TSEM) rockets to $104.04, up 6.16% from $98.00
• Intraday range spans $100.08 to $105.25, nearing 52-week high of $106.74
• Intel’s $300M foundry partnership and short-covering drive momentum
• Options chain shows heavy call buying at 95-105 strikes, signaling bullish bets

Today’s explosive move in Tower Semiconductor reflects a perfect storm of strategic partnership news, short-covering, and technical momentum. With the stock trading near its 52-week peak and key technical indicators aligning, the semiconductor sector’s focus has shifted to TSEM’s ability to capitalize on its newfound alliance with Intel.

Intel Partnership and Short-Covering Fuel TSEM’s Rally
Tower Semiconductor’s 6.16% surge is directly tied to its recent $300 million foundry partnership with Intel, announced in late September. This collaboration, following Intel’s failed $5.4 billion acquisition attempt, positions TSEM as a critical player in Intel’s U.S. manufacturing strategy. Additionally, the stock has seen aggressive short-covering, with short interest declining sharply in August and September. The recent news of large put option purchases in September has also created a self-fulfilling bullish dynamic, as traders scramble to exit bearish positions.

Semiconductor Sector Rally Led by Intel’s 3.19% Gains
The broader semiconductor sector has rallied alongside TSEM, with Intel (INTC) leading the charge with a 3.19% intraday gain. This aligns with SIA data showing global semiconductor sales rising 25.1% year-to-year in September. While TSEM’s move is more pronounced, the sector-wide optimism reflects confidence in AI-driven demand and supply chain reshoring. Intel’s partnership with TSEM underscores the sector’s shift toward strategic alliances over acquisitions.

Bullish Call Options and ETFs Align with TSEM’s Breakout
• 200-day average: $53.05 (well below current price)
• RSI: 60.28 (neutral to bullish)
• MACD: 5.13 (positive divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 104.04 (near upper band at 107.01)

TSEM’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance at $106.74 (52-week high) and support at $92.37 (20-day moving average). The stock’s 62.19 P/E ratio and 62.47% implied volatility in the 95-strike call options indicate strong speculative demand. Two top options for aggressive bulls are:

• TSEM20251219C95 (Call, $95 strike, 12/19 expiration):
- IV: 52.93% (moderate)
- Leverage: 9.14%
- Delta: 0.7796 (high sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.02095 (strong price sensitivity)
- Turnover: $17,296 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $7.22/share (max(0, 109.24 - 95))
This contract offers high leverage and liquidity, ideal for capitalizing on a potential breakout above $105.

• TSEM20251219C105 (Call, $105 strike, 12/19 expiration):
- IV: 52.82% (moderate)
- Leverage: 19.30%
- Delta: 0.5132 (balanced sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.02824 (high responsiveness)
- Turnover: $29,675 (liquid)
- Payoff at 5% upside: $2.22/share (max(0, 109.24 - 105))
This option balances risk and reward, with strong gamma to benefit from volatility spikes.

Aggressive bulls should consider TSEM20251219C95 into a break above $105.00.

Backtest Tower Semiconductor Stock Performance
Key findings1. Sample & event: 12 occurrences in which Tower Semiconductor (TSEM .O) gained ≥ 6 % on a single trading day between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-26.2. Post-event tendency (close-to-close): • 1-day median excess return: +1.6 % (58 % win rate). • Momentum builds steadily: by day 10, average gain reaches +5.4 %, and keeps expanding. • By day 30, events delivered +16.3 % vs ~+3.5 % for the stock’s own 30-day drift → ≈ +12.8 % alpha, 100 % win rate in the backtest.3. Risk profile: Drawdown after events was modest; no single event turned negative after day 14.4. Practical take-away: Historically, chasing ≥ 6 % up-moves in TSEM and holding ~2–4 weeks has been rewarding. However, with only 12 events the sample is small; forward performance may differ, and liquidity/market context matter.Interactive resultsPlease review the detailed event-study dashboard below (you can zoom, filter specific events, and inspect P&L curves):Notes on assumptions• Price data use official Nasdaq daily closes sourced via Ainvest terminal. • Event threshold fixed at +6 % versus prior close. • Backtest window: 30 trading days post-event; equal-weighted averaging across events. • No transaction costs or slippage included.Feel free to explore the dashboard and let me know if you’d like to adjust the trigger threshold, holding horizon, add stop-loss/take-profit rules, or test other tickers.

TSEM’s Breakout Validated by Intel Alliance and Technicals
Tower Semiconductor’s 6.16% surge is a textbook example of strategic partnership-driven momentum, amplified by short-covering and bullish technicals. With Intel (INTC) up 3.19% as the sector leader, the semiconductor industry’s focus on U.S. manufacturing and AI infrastructure bodes well for TSEM. Investors should monitor the $105.00 level as a critical inflection point—breaking this could trigger a retest of the $106.74 52-week high. For now, the call options at 95-105 strikes offer the most compelling risk/reward profile. Watch for $105.00 breakout or regulatory clarity on Intel’s foundry strategy.