U.S. Tourism Collapse: A Crisis for Some, Goldmine for Others – Where to Invest Now?

The United States' once-thriving tourism industry is in freefall, and the fallout is reshaping global travel dynamics. Stricter immigration policies, including heightened border enforcement, gender marker restrictions, and mandatory registration requirements, have triggered cascading travel advisories from European and Canadian governments. The result? A $22 billion annual revenue drop for U.S. tourism, with irreversible job losses and reputational damage. But for astute investors, this crisis is a golden opportunity to capitalize on diverted tourist flows to emerging destinations like Mexico, Portugal, and Bermuda. Here's how to act before it's too late.

The U.S. Tourism Meltdown: Risks to Hospitality, Aviation, and Events

The U.S. tourism sector's decline is no longer theoretical—it's measurable and accelerating. Key sectors are buckling under the weight of policy-driven declines:

Hospitality Sector Collapse

• $22B annual revenue loss (2023–2025): European and Canadian tourists account for 37% of overseas visitation, and their exodus is decimating hotel occupancy rates.
• Job losses: Over 200,000 hospitality jobs risk permanent closure as hotels in major destinations like Las Vegas and Orlando reduce operations.
• Investment risk: U.S. hotel stocks like Marriott (MAR) and Hilton (HLT) have seen 20%+ declines in valuation since 2023, reflecting investor pessimism.

Aviation Sector Struggles

• Reduced flight demand: Airlines like Delta (DAL) and American Airlines (AAL) face 5–8% fewer international passengers from Europe and Canada.
• Capacity cuts: Airlines are trimming routes to U.S. secondary cities, with Air Canada (AC.TO) reducing U.S. flights by 10% in 2025.

Event-Driven Tourism Collapse

• Conventions and conferences: Cities like Chicago and Miami are losing high-value corporate events to destinations like Portugal and Bermuda, where per-person spending is rising.
• Reputational damage: The U.S. is now perceived as a “high-risk” destination by travelers wary of arbitrary border decisions.

Where the Money Is Flowing: Mexico, Portugal, and Bermuda as New Tourism Powerhouses

The decline of U.S. tourism has created a $200B+ opportunity for alternative destinations. Here's where to invest now:

Mexico: The Ultimate Winner

• Tourism revenue: Surged to $32.96 billion in 2024, a 7.4% year-on-year increase, driven by 16.2 million international visitors in early 2025.
• Key markets: U.S. tourists now account for 40% of arrivals, with Cancún and Los Cabos experiencing record hotel occupancy.
• Investment plays:
• Real estate: Invest in Mexican hotel REITs or coastal developments like the Tren Maya corridor.
• Stocks: Grupo Aeroméxico (AMXM) and Cintra Hotels (CINTRA.MX) offer exposure to rising demand.

Portugal: A Quiet Luxury Play

• U.S. tourist growth: 2.3 million arrivals in 2024, a 13.9% revenue surge, as travelers seek affordable luxury and English-speaking culture.
• Infrastructure: New flights (e.g., TAP Portugal's U.S. routes) and tax incentives for investors are boosting real estate and hospitality.
• Investment plays:
• Real estate: Buy into Algarve coastal properties or Lisbon apartments.
• Stocks: Galp Energia (GALP.LS) and Portugal Telecom (MEO) benefit indirectly from tourism-driven economic growth.

Bermuda: The Hidden Gem

• Air arrivals up 15% in 2024: Direct flights from U.S. cities like Chicago and Baltimore have fueled growth, with leisure spending rising 35% in hotels.
• Yachting boom: Events like the Newport Bermuda Race attract ultra-high-net-worth tourists, driving $13.85 million in yachting revenue.
• Investment plays:
• Real estate: Invest in Bermudian beachfront resorts like the Bermudiana Beach Resort (under construction).
• Stocks: Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA)-backed ventures or regional airlines like BermudAir (private).

Why Act Now? The Clock Is Ticking

The U.S. tourism decline is irreversible for several reasons:
1. Reputational damage: Travel advisories from Germany, France, and Canada will linger, deterring risk-averse tourists.
2. Structural shifts: Airlines and event planners are already pivoting to Mexico and Portugal, making U.S. recovery harder.
3. Job losses: Over 100,000 hospitality workers have been permanently laid off since 2023—these roles won't return.

For investors, the window to capitalize on this shift is narrowing. Destinations like Mexico and Portugal are nearing capacity constraints, and early movers will secure the best returns.

Final Call to Action: Deploy Capital Before the Surge Peaks

• Buy into Mexican tourism infrastructure before hotel rates hit pre-pandemic highs.
• Diversify into Portuguese real estate before tax incentives expire.
• Allocate to Bermuda's yachting sector as ultra-luxury tourism booms.

The U.S. tourism collapse isn't just a sectoral issue—it's a geopolitical and economic reckoning. Investors who ignore it risk missing the decade-defining opportunity to profit from the new global travel order. Act swiftly, or watch others capitalize on this crisis-turned-opportunity.